§ Mr. GibbTo ask the Secretary of State for the Home Department what assessment he has made of the trend in recidivism over the last decade. [101222]
§ Hilary BennTwo-year `un-adjusted' reconviction rates for prisoners discharged from custody are available for 1987 to 1998. These were 57 per cent. in 1987, 55 per cent. in 1988, 53 per cent. in 1989, 52 per cent. in 1990, 53 per cent. in 1991, 51 per cent. in 1992, 53 per cent. in 1993, 56 per cent. in 1994, 58 per 213W cent. in 1995, 57 per cent. in 1996, 58 per cent. in 1997 and 59 per cent. in 1998. These rates are published in 'Prison Statistics—England and Wales 2001'.
The change in rates over the years will mainly be explained by changes in the underlying demographic and criminological characteristics of the offenders sentenced to custody over this period of time. These include gender, age when sentenced, number of previous convictions, type of offence and other factors. Due to this and other reasons custodial and community penalty reconviction rates should not be directly compared.
Reconviction rates for offenders discharged from custody have also been published according to the requirements of the Governments Public Service Agreement (PSA) 10 target. These are adjusted to take out convictions for offences committed prior to discharge, giving a reconviction rate of 55.3 per cent. for the first quarter of 1999. The equivalent figures for the first quarter of 1997 and 1998 are 56.8 per cent. and 55.7 per cent. respectively.
Neither set of rates indicates trends in rates over time, as they make no allowance for changes in the characteristics and criminal histories of offenders given custodial sentences. To do this a predicted rate is used. Comparisons between the actual and predicted reconviction rates for 1999 show that the actual rate was 3.3 percentage points lower than predicted relative to the 1997 baseline.
Reconviction rates for more recent periods are not yet available.