§ Paul Flynn
To ask the Secretary of State for Health what his estimate is of the likely changes that will take place in the next five year totals of(a) male and (b) female smokers as a result of the ban on tobacco advertising and the future use of nicotine replacement therapies and Zyban. 
§ Ms Blears
Information is not available in the form requested.
The Government have set the following targets in reducing smoking:To reduce smoking among children from 13 per cent., the 1996 figure, to 11 per cent., by 2005 and 9 per cent., by 2010.To reduce adult smoking in all social classes so that the overall rates falls from 28 per cent., the 1996 figure, to 26 per cent., by 2005 and 24 per cent., by 2010.To reduce the percentage of women who smoke during pregnancy from 23 per cent., the 1995 figure, to 18 per cent.. by 2005 and 15 per cent., by 2010.Smoking rates among manual groups will be reduced from 32 per cent., in 1998 to 26 per cent., by 2010.
The priorities and planning framework (PPF), published on 2 October 2002, set out the priorities for the next three years for the national health service and social services and described what local organisations and communities need to do to plan for and implement the improvements.
Two of the targets set in the PPF drive the existing programmes to tackle smoking.
In the cancer section:Reduce the rate of smoking, contributing to the national target of: reducing the rate in manual groups from 32 per cent., in 1998 to 26 per cent., by 2010; 800,000 smokers from all groups successfully quitting at the 4 week stage by 2006
In the Reducing Health Inequalities section:Deliver a one percentage point reduction per year in the proportion of women continuing to smoke throughout pregnancy, focussing especially on smokers from disadvantaged groups as a contribution to the national target to reduce by at least 10 per cent., the gap in mortality between "routine and manual" groups and the population as a whole by 2010, starting with children under one year.
These changes will be delivered through a comprehensive tobacco control strategy, including an advertising ban and the provision of nicotine replacement therapy and Zyban. It is estimated that banning tobacco advertising and promotion will result in a 2.5 per cent., reduction in tobacco consumption, eventually saving up to 3,000 lives a year.119W
In the short term, the ban will save 1,500 or more lives a year.