§ Mr. David StewartTo ask the Secretary of State for Health (1) what projections were provided by his Department to the Wanless Review Team for(a) the prevalence of diabetes in the years to 2010–11 and (b) the reduction in the number of people with undiagnosed diabetes by 2010–11; [54653]
(2) what assumptions underlie the Wanless report concerning the relationship between more effective care for diabetes and lower expenditure on coronary heart disease and renal disease; [54650]
(3) what proportion of the cost of implementing the NSF for diabetes, as projected by the Wan less report, is attributable to (a) expanded treatment programmes and (b) an increase in diagnosed prevalence. [54651]
§ Jacqui SmithDuring the early years of implementation of the diabetes national service framework (NSF) we would expect the majority of available resources to be directed towards improvements in treatment for those people with diabetes who have not received systematic high quality treatment in the past. In subsequent years, the cost of implementing the NSF is likely to be increasingly attributable to the rising prevalence of diabetes and the maintenance of a high quality of care across the patient population.
Optimal blood glucose control and tight blood pressure control are two key interventions in the diabetes NSF. Evidence indicates that these interventions may reduce the rate of certain complications of diabetes, including renal failure and heart attack, which might therefore lead to reduced expenditure on coronary heart disease and renal disease.
The Department provided the following prevalence projections to the Wanless review team for diabetes in England for the years up to 2011:
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Year Diagnosed prevalence Total patients (million) 2002 2.63 1.316 2003 2.70 1.355 2004 2.78 1.399 2005 2.87 1.448
Year Diagnosed prevalence Total patients (million) 2006 2.97 1.502 2007 3.07 1.561 2008 3.19 1.624 2009 3.31 1.689 2010 3.44 1.759 2011 3.57 1.832 Additionally, officials undertook some sensitivity analysis on the prevalence rates for the Wanless team that focused on different scenarios regarding the size and integration of the undiagnosed diabetes population into the system.
The Wanless report has informed decisions about the overall level of funding that the national health service has received. The Budget provides the highest sustained growth in NHS history, with annual average increases of 7.4 per cent. a year in real terms over the five years 2003–04 to 2007–08. Decisions about the allocation of the increased funding will be announced later this year.