§ Mr. SwireTo ask the Secretary of State for Health what assessment he has made of the amounts of smallpox vaccine necessary to treat the whole population in the event of a terrorist biological attack. [51786]
§ Mr. HuttonThe number of vaccine doses required to cover the population would be approximately 60 million.
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§ Mr. DalyellTo ask the Secretary of State for Health what percentage of the population would be expected to contract smallpox on a transmission ratio of(a) 4 to 6 and (b) 10 to 12. [44009]
§ Mr. Hutton[holding answer 26 March 2002]: Crude estimates of the number of people that might contract smallpox following one initial case with prompt and vigorous public health intervention, assuming a United Kingdom population of 60 million are:
for a transmission rate of 1:4–6 (mean 5) 34 cases (0.00006 per cent. of the population)for a transmission rate of 1:10–12 (mean 11) 11,800 cases (0.02 per cent. of the population).Rates of 10–12 would be more likely to occur only at the very start of an outbreak before public health interventions were implemented. Lower transmission rates would apply thereafter.