§ Mr. LawsTo ask the Secretary of State for Health what his estimate is of the annual increase in the NHS budget needed to meet the higher costs associated with(a) an aging population and (b) improved healthcare technology; and if he will make a statement. [10818]
§ Mr. Hutton[holding answer 31 October 2001]: I apologise to the hon. Member for the delay in responding to this question. I refer the hon. Member to the reply that my right hon. Friend the Secretary of State gave my hon. Friend the Member for Blackpool, North and Fleetwood (Mrs. Humble) on 5 March 2002, Official Report, column 192W.
Since there is no single agreed methodology for estimating the impact of aging and improving healthcare technology on the cost of health care, the Department takes an alternative approach to estimating the underlying pressures on health care expenditure. The Department uses the trend increase in activity and expenditure for individual services as an indicator of likely future increases in costs. For example, the Department uses trend growth in the following categories of services:
- Expenditure on FHS drugs;
- Non-elective (emergency) hospital activity; and
- The number of patient visits by community staff.
These trend increases include the impact of aging population and health care technology. They also capture the effect of other factors, such as changes in public expectations and changes in the underlying health status of the population.