§ Simon HughesTo ask the Secretary of State for the Home Department what the projected change in the prison population is over the next(a) 12 months, (b) two years, and (c) five years; for what reasons the prison population is expected to change over these periods; and if he will make a statement. [37741]
§ Beverley HughesPrison population projections are produced every six months; information from the latest projection (November 2001) is provided.
Central population projection Higher population projection 12 months 69,264 71,785 2 years 72,615 76,068 5 years 77,922 84,501 The main determining factors in the size of the prison population are the numbers of offenders being sentenced at the courts, the proportions given custody, and the average lengths of sentences received. The projections make assumptions about future trends in court sentencing behaviour, based on observed trends in these three areas. The total number of persons sentenced for indictable 721W offences has remained stable over the last eight quarters. Custody rates (the proportion of those sentenced at court who are given immediate custody) have increased for adult males and females, and have decreased for male young offenders. Average sentence lengths have remained stable for adult males, and have increased for young males, and also for females.
The projections take into account the average year on year changes over the last four quarters for which information is available. Three scenarios, based on different possible sentencing trends at the courts, are used to project forward the prison population. These scenarios apply to prisoners sentenced to four years or less. Prisoners with sentences of four years or greater are assumed to increase in line with the long-term trends. Males are expected to increase by 70 prisoners per month, and females by 20 per month.
As well as assumptions about court sentencing behaviour, the projections also take into account known changes in legislation and policy. That is, where the proposals are law, that relevant legislation has been enacted, and there is an agreed timetable for implementation. Various changes can act to increase or reduce the prison population. On 1 March 2002 the population had exceeded the higher projection for six weeks. The reasons for this are as yet unclear.