§ Lord Howell of Guildfordasked Her Majesty's Government:
What studies they have made of the discussion paper by Mr Christopher Taylor of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research on Sterling Volatility and European Monetary Union, and whether they agree with his conclusions, notably in relation to the greater exposure of the United Kingdom economy to non-European Union trade than to the main eurozone economies. [HL5358]
§ Lord McIntosh of HaringeyOver half our total trade is with Europe, with over 3 million jobs affected.
The Government have said that they will complete an assessment of the five economic tests within two years of the start of this Parliament. The assessment will be comprehensive and rigorous.
§ Lord Howell of Guildfordasked Her Majesty's Government:
What view they take of the conclusion in the discussion paper by Mr Christopher Taylor of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research that greater volatility between the euro and the United States dollar is in prospect. [HL5359]
§ Lord McIntosh of HaringeyThe Government do not comment on developments or prospects in the foreign exchange market.
§ Lord Howell of Guildfordasked Her Majesty's Government:
Whether they accept the conclusion of the discussion paper by Mr Christopher Taylor of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research that the Bank of England Exchange Rate Index severely misrepresents the reality of the global pattern of United Kingdom trade and investment. [HL5360]
88WA
§ Lord McIntosh of HaringeyThe Bank of England Effective Exchange Rate Index is calculated according to a methodology set out by the IMF, using shares of UK manufacturing trade for 1989–1991. It is desirable to maintain a stable and transparent methodology for calculating such an index in order for it to be comparable across time and across countries.
§ Lord Howell of Guildfordasked Her Majesty's Government:
What conclusions they draw from the recent study by Mr Christopher Taylor of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research concerning the importance of the United States dollar to the United Kingdom economy and the dangers of increased overall currency volatility if sterling is merged into the euro. [HL5361]
§ Lord McIntosh of HaringeyThe Government have said that they will complete an assessment of the five economic tests within two years of the start of this Parliament. The assessment will be comprehensive and rigorous.
§ Lord Stoddart of Swindonasked Her Majesty's Government:
Further to the Written Answer by Lord McIntosh of Haringey on 16 July (WA129), whether they will now give a substantive answer to the question "whether any decision to abolish the pound and adopt the euro would be irrevocable; and, if so, how the constitutional principle that one Parliament cannot bind its successor would be maintained" instead of referring to previous answers which do not provide such a substantive answer. [HL5410]
§ Lord McIntosh of HaringeyAs I said in the House on 24 June 1999, "any country which chooses to enter EMU does so on the basis that it is an irrevocable step." The Chancellor confirmed this in his recent Mansion House speech, saying, "the decision [on EMU] is not just momentous, but irreversible." That is why, as the Chancellor said in his Mansion House speech, "the national economic interest—full employment, high and sustainable levels of investment and growth, long-term prosperity—is, and should be seen to be, the decisive factor."
As I also made clear in the debate on 24 June 1999, any recommendation by government to join EMU would need to be agreed by a vote in Parliament, before being put to a referendum of the British people.