Foot and Mouth: Computer Models (Hansard, 17 July 2002)

HL Deb 17 July 2002 vol 637 cc161-2WA 161WA

§ Baroness Byford
asked Her Majesty's Government:
Whether the computer models used in March 2001 to predict the probable course of the foot-and-mouth outbreak have yet to be peer reviewed. [HL5150]
162WA

§ Lord Whitty
The Government do not propose to ask for any peer review of those models used in March 2001. Defra made extensive use of a computer simulation model, Interspread, originally developed in New Zealand. For the control policies in operation in late March, the model predicted an epidemic of 1,800 to 1,900 affected farms and estimated that the epidemic would be eradicated by between July and October 2001, with a low probability of continuing beyond October 2001.