§ Mr. David StewartTo ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer what revised gross domestic product figures for the Highlands and Islands regarding eligibility for Objective One status for 2000–06 the Office of National Statistics has calculated since the bids for Objective One status were submitted. [84295]
§ Ruth Kelly[holding answer 2 December 2002]: The information requested falls within the responsibility of the National Statistician. I have asked him to reply.
Letter from L. Cook to Mr. David Stewart, dated 16 December 2002:
As National Statistician I have been asked to reply to your recent question on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for Highlands and Islands. (84295)The Office for National Statistics (ONS) publishes estimates of regional and sub-regional Gross Value Added (GVA, previously referred to as Gross Domestic Product—GDP), compiled using methods agreed at a European level. These data are then supplied to Eurostat, the Statistical Office of the European Union, who convert the data into euros and Purchasing Power Parities (PPPs) for international comparison. The PPP-based data for sub-regions (NUTS level 2) have been used to determine eligibility for Objective 1 of the Structural Funds. The Highlands and Islands Enterprise area is a single NUTS2 unit.The GDP figures for the NUTS 2 area of Highlands and Islands for 1993 to 1996 were published in October 1998. These data (Table 1) were based on the European System of Accounts 1979 (ESA79) methodology, arid were used to inform the decisions on Objective 1 eligibility for the period 2000 to 2006.
Table 1: ONS data published in October 1998 1993 1994 1995 1996 GDP £ million 2,739 2,877 2,990 3,093 GDP £ per head 7,385 7,729 8,020 8,308 GDP £ per head UK = 100 80 79 79 78 In April 2001, sub-regional gross value added (GVA) data were published using the new ESA95 methodology, for the period 1993 to 1998, as shown in Table 2. ESA95 is the new National and Regional Accounts convention now used for compiling regional accounts by all EU countries.
609W
Table 2: ONS data published in April 2001 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 GDP £ million 2,947 3,052 3,176 3,217 3,306 3,461 GDP £ per head 7,943 8,199 8,515 8,634 8,898 9,369 GDP £ per head UK = 100 82 81 80 77 75 75 The ONS published revised estimates for NUTS level 1 (Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland, and the nine English Government Office Regions) for 1989 to 1999 on 21 November 2002, and will be publishing provisional estimates for 2000 and 2001 in December 2002. The ONS then plans to publish consistent sub-regional and local area (NUTS levels 2 and 3 respectively) GVA for the period 1993–2000 early in 2003. These data will be supplied to Eurostat, who will, as described above, convert these to a PPP basis before publishing on an EU = 100 index basis.
However, I should like to draw to your attention to an announcement the ONS put out this week about an error in sub-national, annual business inquiry estimates which provide part of the source information for many industries. These are impacting on the ONS regional GVA publications of 21 November 2002 and 17 December 2002 referred to above. The size of the error is within the range of variability seen by changes made in the past when first published GVA estimates have been revised. We are taking the unusual step of publishing a revised series of estimates at NUTS-1, 2 and 3 level in early 2003. Therefore the regional GVA series being published in 2002 are being referred to as provisional, but because the size of the revisions is not anticipated to be outside of past user experiences they will continue to be made available, subject to being marked as provisional from now on. The announcement can be found at the NS website at: www.statistics.gov.uk/notices/Impact_on_other_regional_outputs.asp