§ Mr.HowardTo ask Mr. Chancellor of the Exchequer on what basis 2007–08 has been chosen as the year in90W which the trend growth rate is assumed to change as a result of demographic effects, for the purpose of his calculations in the Pre-Budget Report November 2002 (Cm 5664). [85547]
§ Ruth Kelly[holding answer 5 December2002]: As set out in paragraph B20 of the Pre-Budget Report November 2002 (Cm 5664), projections by the Government Actuary's Department imply a slowdown in the growth of the population of working age, beyond 2006–07 mainly as a result of women born in the years following the Second World War moving into retirement, as confirmed to the National Audit Office (HC 109 Session 2002–03). This reduces the estimated trend rate of output growth by a ¼ of a percentage point in 2007–08.