§ Mr. HowardTo ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer whether he will publish the estimates of actual UK trend growth prior to 2002 he has received from(a) the OECD, (b) the EC, (c) the OEF and (d) Goldman Sachs; and what reasons underlay his decision on the use of these estimates in the estimate of trend growth. [85539]
§ Ruth Kelly[holding answer 5 December 2002]: Estimates of trend growth for the UK produced by the OECD, the EC, OEF and Goldman Sachs, among other organisations, are set out in Table 4.1 on page 26 of the Treasury paper, "Trend Growth: Recent Developments and Prospects" published at the time of the 2002 Budget.
§ Mr. HowardTo ask Mr. Chancellor of the Exchequer if he will make a statement on the effect of the reduction in assumed trend growth from 2007–08 on the public finances from that financial year. [85546]
§ Ruth Kelly[holding answer 5 December 2002]: The forecast for the public finances in Budget 2002 covers the years to 2006–07. However paragraph 3.41 of the accompanying paper, Trend Growth: Recent Developments and Prospects, signalled that population effects could affect growth projections in 2007–08. Under the Pre-Budget Report assumptions on spending for 2007–08, set out in paragraph B20, changes in growth projections affect both spending as well as receipts.
§ Mr. HowardTo ask Mr. Chancellor of the Exchequer pursuant to his statement of 27 November, Official Report, column 318, on what evidence he based his statement that in 2003, Britain and North America are forecast to continue to be the fastest growing of all the major economies. [85549]
§ Ruth Kelly[holding answer 5 December 2002]: According to the latest Consensus Forecasts, published in November 2002, growth in 2002 and 2003 is expected to be higher in the US, Canada and the UK than in the any of the other G7 economies.