§ Mr. HowardTo ask Mr. Chancellor of the Exchequer pursuant to paragraph A37 of the Pre-Budget Report November 2002 (Cm 5664), what further data is required before a definitive judgement can be made on the start date for the present economic cycle; and when he expects to be in a position to make that judgement. [85538]
§ Ruth Kelly[holding answer 5 December 2002]: It is inevitably much more difficult to judge whether or not an on-trend point occurs when output hovers close to 86W trend as it did in mid-1999 than when output clearly passes through trend. As paragraph A37 of the Pre-Budget Report states:
87WThere is still some doubt about whether the economy was on trend in mid-1999 or just close to trend, so the judgement that the present cycle started in mid-1999 remains provisional. The data and methodology for estimating on-trend points and dating cycles are kept under review. But whether the current cycle started in 1997 or 1999 does not affect the judgement that the Government remains firmly on track to meet the fiscal rules over the cycle: the average current surplus since both 1997–98 and 1999–2000 is positive in every year of the projection period.Only future GDP revisions could change the current judgement that the present cycle started in mid-1999.
§ Mr. HowardTo ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer pursuant to Chart A4 of the pre-Budget report November 2002 (Cm 5664), if he will make a statement on the projected end date of the current economic cycle. [85542]
§ Ruth Kelly[holding answer 5 December 2002]: As set out in paragraph B7 of the pre-Budget report November 2002 (Cm 5664), the current economic cycle is projected to end in 2005–06.