§ Mr. HarveyTo ask the Secretary of State for Health if he will estimate the number of doctors who will qualify and join the NHS in each of the next five years. [109258]
§ Mr. Denham[holding answer 10 February 2000]: The forecast output from medical schools in any one year cannot be accurately predicted.
Although most undergraduate medical courses are five years in length, some last for six years and many students on five-year courses delay their year of qualification by studying for an intercalated Honours degree. In addition, from 1999, some graduates will be admitted to shorter four-year medical degrees.
The latest figures from the Higher Education Funding Council for England, show that in July 1999 3,097 doctors qualified from English medical schools. The medical school intake figures from the last five years suggest that by July 2004 the output from medical schools will have increased by some 10 to 15 per cent. above the 1999 position.