§ Mr. Wilkinson
To ask the Secretary of State for the Home Department what estimate he has made of the number of police officers who will leave the police service over the next three years. 
§ Mr. Straw
Given the uncertainty surrounding the number of officers who take early retirement on medical grounds or who leave the service before normal retirement age for other reasons, it is not possible to project actual wastage in the future. However, the actual wastage over the last three years has been running at around five and a half thousand per year. The hon. Member will wish to be aware of papers and calculations, which I presented to the Home Affairs Select Committee on Tuesday 26 October, which had been prepared by the Research, Development and Statistics Directorate of my Department and by Professor Buck of Essex University. I am sending the hon. Member a copy, and copies are also available in the Library.