§ Mr. WebbTo ask the Secretary of State for Social Security if he will estimate on the basis of current policy how many(a) men and (b) women, aged (i) 65 to 69, (ii) 70 to 79 and (iii) 80 years or above in 2050, will receive income support by that date. [65425]
§ Angela EagleThe information requested is not available. Such information as is available is as follows.
Projections forward to the year 2050 are subject to a high degree of uncertainty, given the number of assumptions that need to be made in making these estimates. Estimates of the number of pensioners receiving Income Support in 2050 have been made by extrapolating results from the PENSIM model. These estimates can only give a broad indication of the likely order of magnitude of figures so far into the future, and are heavily rounded. Estimates of sub-groups of this caseload are not available.
On the basis of existing policies, estimates suggest that 1 in 3 (3.5 million) pensioners in 2050 could rely on Income Support. Even if no behavioural changes are assumed, our proposals in our new insurance contract for pensions will mean that these estimates are reduced to approximately 1 in 4 (2.5 million) pensioners receiving income from the Minimum Income Guarantee in 2050, and a lower proportion in years after 2050.
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§ Mrs. GilroyTo ask the Secretary of State for Social Security (1) how much it would cost to raise the upper threshold of income support for those in residential or nursing care to £40,000 with a lower limit of(a) £10,000, (b) £20,000, (c) £30,000 and (d) no lower limit; [67242]
(2) how much it would cost to raise the upper threshold of income support for those in residential or nursing care to £50,000 with a lower limit of (a) £10,000, (b) £20,000, (c) £30,000, (d) £40,000 and (e) no lower limit; [67243]
(3) how much it would cost to raise the upper threshold of income support for those in residential or nursing care to £60,000 with a lower limit of (a) £10,000, (b) £20,000, (c) £30,000, (d) £40,000, (e) £50,000 and (f) no lower limit; [67244]
(4) how much it would cost to raise the upper threshold of income support for those in residential or nursing care to £70,000 with a lower limit of (a) £10,000, (b) £20,000, (c) £30,000, (d) £40,000, (e) £50,000, (f) £60,000 and (g) no lower limit. [67245]
§ Angela EagleThe information is in the table.
Estimated costs to income support of changes to the capital limits for residential care £ million Upper limit £40k Upper limit £50k Upper limit £60k Upper limit £70k Lower limit—£ 10k 25 25 25 25 Lower limit—£20k 50 50 75 75 Lower limit—£30k 50 75 100 100 Lower limit—£40k — 100 125 125 Lower limit—£50k — — 150 175 Lower limit—£60k — — — 200 Lower limit—none 75 125 175 200 Notes:
1. The estimates of the costs to income support of raising the capital limits for residential care should be regarded as orders of magnitude only. They are for Great Britain at 1997–98 prices, rounded to the nearest £25 million. The analysis uses information from the 1996–97 Family Resources Survey on the income and assets of single very elderly people as a proxy for information on the income and assets of residents.
2. The estimates relate to the impact on income support expenditure only—not to any linked changes that might occur to capital limits for local support in residential care.
3. If they were matched in this way, the majority of the costs of raising the capital limits for residential care would fall to local authority social services rather than income support and have significant implications for local authority charging.
4. A minority of the privately funded residents who float on to income support would be eligible for the higher preserved rights rates, by virtue of admission before April 1993.
5. The estimates assume for illustrative purposes that one in eight would receive the higher rates of income support. In practice the proportion would depend on the date of implementation of the raised capital limits.