HC Deb 12 January 1999 vol 323 cc187-90W
Mr. Baker

To ask the Secretary of State for the Environment, Transport and the Regions (1) what estimate he has made of the impact of(a) the 6 per cent. fuel duty escalator, (b) full take up of local transport measures in areas greater than 25 km2, (c) full take up of local transport measures in London and in 1/3 of all areas greater than 25 km2 and (d) strict enforcement of 70 mph speed limit on national traffic levels in the models used to calculate the carbon dioxide emissions savings given in the table on page 38 of the UK Climate Change Programme; [64995]

(2) what estimate he has made of the number of cities which could reduce their road traffic carbon dioxide emissions by 20 per cent. as described in paragraph 2.59 of the New Deal for Transport; and what changes to traffic levels, based on 1990 levels, such reductions would imply (a) in those cities and (b) nationally; [64989]

(3) what forecast he has made of the levels of traffic reduction which would occur in (a) the urban areas concerned and (b) nationally if local authorities in cities at least the size of Southampton acted to reduce road traffic carbon dioxide by 0.8 MtC by 2010, as set out in paragraph 114 of the UK Climate Change Programme. [64994]

Ms Glenda Jackson

The UK Climate Change Programme Consultation paper and "A New Deal For Transport: Better for Everyone", published last year, presented estimates of the environmental savings which could potentially be achieved through the introduction of a package of local transport measures which were outlined in "A New Deal For Transport". These estimates included only those measures where the impact could be easily quantified, which included central area cordon charges and complementary public transport improvements. Other measures in "A New Deal for Transport" which are less easy to quantify would add to these savings.

The estimates were derived using the 1997 National Road Traffic Forecasts framework in conjunction with information on the potential impact of the transport measures derived from more specific local transport models. The analysis suggested that savings of up to 20 per cent. in road traffic carbon dioxide emissions could be made in the centre of the busiest cities. Nationally, this translates into a saving of 0.3 to 0.8 MtC by 2010 depending on the number of cities in which the packages of measures were introduced.

These estimates were presented relative to a baseline which incorporated the expected impact of the 6 per cent. fuel duty escalator. It is estimated that the continuation of this policy for the lifetime of the current parliament could reduce national traffic levels by 2 per cent. compared with what they would otherwise have been in 2010.

If there was full take up of the package of local transport measures in urban areas greater than 25 km2 (such as cities the size of Southampton or larger) it is estimated that this could reduce national traffic levels by a further 2 per cent. on the forecast level by 2010, and by around 20 per cent. in the centre of the urban areas concerned. Alternatively, if the measures were only introduced in London and a third of urban areas greater than 25 km2 national traffic could be expected to be reduced by around 1 per cent. on its forecast level. The traffic, and carbon dioxide, reduction which could be expected in specific individual cities would depend on the exact form in which the measures were introduced, and on the particular characteristics of each city and its population. It is therefore not possible to estimate the precise number of cities where savings of 20 per cent. could be achieved.

The Climate Change Programme Consultation paper also presents an estimate for the potential carbon dioxide savings which could be achieved through the strict enforcement of 70 mph speed limits. The analysis underlying this estimate was based on survey information of the extent and severity of speeding, and an assessment of the emissions saving from reducing such activity. The analysis could not be used to predict what impact the enforcement of speed limits would have on traffic levels.

The answer I gave the hon. Member on 3 November 1998, official report, column 458, indicated that my Department will be undertaking further analysis of the impact of the New Deal policies on road traffic—taking into account information from local authorities on what measures they plan to introduce—in the context of preparing reports under the Road Traffic Reduction (National Targets) Act 1998.

Mr. Baker

To ask the Secretary of State for the Environment, Transport and the Regions what level of traffic, expressed as a percentage of traffic levels in 1990, has been assumed to calculate the 22 to 27 per cent. reduction in forecast road traffic carbon dioxide emissions by 2010 referred to in paragraph 2.26 of the New Deal for Transport. [64990]

Ms Glenda Jackson

The reduction in road transport carbon dioxide emissions of 22 to 27 per cent. which was presented in "A New Deal For Transport: Better for Everyone" was estimated relative to energy projections which were published by the Department for Trade and Industry in 1995. The reduction includes the impact of a number of policy measures including the 6 per cent. fuel duty escalator, the EU Strategy to reduce carbon dioxide emissions from new cars, and the potential impact of those local transport measures which were quantified in A New Deal for Transport. In addition, the figures were also influenced by the switch to the use of the 1997 National Road Traffic Forecast modelling framework as a tool for estimating transport carbon dioxide emissions.

Using the National Road Traffic Forecasts model, it is estimated that with these policies in place traffic would grow by 37 per cent. by 2010 relative to 1990 vehicle kilometre levels. This analysis assumes that the improvements in energy efficiency which arise from the EU Strategy to reduce carbon dioxide from cars would not lead to offsetting increases in vehicle use. As indicated in my answer to question number 64989, further analysis on the impact of the measures contained within A New Deal for Transport on traffic levels is planned.

Mr. Baker

To ask the Secretary of State for the Environment, Transport and the Regions what estimate he has made of the amount which road traffic levels would need to be reduced in order to reduce road traffic carbon dioxide emissions by 20 per cent. by 2010, on 1990 levels. [64991]

Ms Glenda Jackson

The publication of the Climate Change Programme Consultation paper in October 1998 began the national debate on how to meet our legally binding Kyoto target, and how we can move beyond this towards a 20 per cent. reduction in carbon dioxide emissions. Part of this national debate will focus on how specific sectors of the economy, including the transport sector, can contribute towards meeting our climate change targets.

Carbon dioxide levels could be reduced from the transport sector in a number of ways, each having different implications for traffic levels. Until it is clear how the transport sector will contribute to meeting our climate change targets it is not possible to provide an overall assessment of how traffic levels will be affected by the contribution.

Mr. Baker

To ask the Secretary of State for the Environment, Transport and the Regions what estimate he has made of the reduction in carbon dioxide from(a) road freight transport and (b) private car use on a 1990 base by 2010; and what proportion of this reduction would be (i) as a result of improvements in engine efficiency and (ii) from reductions in the number of lorry-kilometres travelled. [64992]

Ms Glenda Jackson

Forecasts of the change in carbon dioxide emissions from different parts of the road transport sector can be made using the National Road Traffic Forecasts modelling framework which was published in 1997. This model can be used to split changes in emissions over time between changes in underlying energy efficiency and vehicle use, but only from a base year of 1996.

Assuming that fuel duty is increased by 6 per cent. per annum in real terms for the lifetime of the current Parliament, and that no other policies are introduced, between 1996 and 2010 it is forecast that total carbon dioxide emissions from cars will grow by 6 per cent. This growth is made up of two counterbalancing effects. Over the period, vehicle kilometres are forecast to increase leading to a growth in carbon dioxide emissions of up to 28 per cent. This is offset by improvements which are forecast in the underlying energy efficiency of vehicles which is expected to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by around 22 per cent.

It is forecast that carbon dioxide emissions from road freight between 1996 and 2010 will increase by around 3 per cent. This change is made up of a forecast improvement in underlying energy efficiency of up to 18 per cent., which is offset by an expected increase in vehicle use of up to 22 per cent. This analysis is based on the assumption that the efficiency of Heavy Goods Vehicles improves by one per cent. per year.

Mr. Baker

To ask the Secretary of State for the Environment, Transport and the Regions what changes in traffic levels, expressed as a percentage of 1990 levels, was assumed in order to calculate the carbon dioxide emissions forecast for 2010 from road traffic given in paragraph 127 of the UK Climate Change Programme. [64993]

Ms Glenda Jackson

The forecast of carbon dioxide emissions from road traffic given in the Climate Change Programme Consultation paper was estimated using the National Road Traffic Forecasts which were published in 1997. This forecast does not include the impact of the policies which were outlined in A New Deal for Transport. Relative to total traffic levels in 1990, the central forecasts predict that total vehicle kilometres will grow by 40 per cent. by 2010.