Income Support (Hansard, 15 February 1999)

§ Mr. Flynn
To ask the Secretary of State for Social Security what assumption was made about the number of pensioners and pensioner units in 2050 for the purpose of his estimates of the proportion likely to be receiving income support. [71480]

§ Mr. Timms
The estimates made of the proportion of pensioner units likely to be receiving Income Support in 2050 have been based on 1992-based population projections by marital status in 2022, from the Government Actuary's Department (GAD). These have been adjusted to 2050 using 1996-based population projections of the 557W number of individuals from GAD. The assumed number of pensioner units in 2050 is approximately 11 million, with approximately 14.5 million individuals over state pension age.
Notes:
1. A pensioner unit is defined as a single pensioner at State pension age or above, or a couple in which the head is state pension age.
2. Figures have been rounded to the nearest 0.5 million.

§ Mr. Webb
To ask the Secretary of State for Social Security if a person has earnings of £9,000 per annum or less throughout their lifetime, retires in 2050 on the basic state pension and the state second pension, and lives for a further 20 years, at what point they will start to need income support to top up their income. [71157]

§ Mr. Timms
Our aim is that the Minimum Income Guarantee (MIG) should move in line with earnings over the long-term, as resources allow, but not necessarily in each single year. Consequently, it is not possible to answer the question with any precision.
On the assumption that the person referred to has no other sources of income or capital, and that the MIG moves in line with earnings between now and 2050 and for each single year following 2050, he or she would become eligible for Income Support some 5 years after reaching State pension age.

§ Mr. Flynn
To ask the Secretary of State for Social Security what estimate he has made of the increase in the number of pensioners receiving income support in March 2002 resulting from the minimum income guarantee, assuming that the guarantee is uprated in line with(a) prices and (b) average earnings. [71482]

§ Mr. Timms
The information is not available in the form requested. Such information as is available is as follows.
Uprating the Minimum Income Guarantee by prices using the Rossi index (RPI less housing costs) would not result in any new pensioner cases floating onto the Minimum Income Guarantee.
The increase in the number of pensioners receiving Income Support (IS) assuming the Minimum Income Guarantee is uprated in line with earnings is estimated to be 40,000 in 2000–01 and 90,000 in 2001–02.
Notes:
1. The estimates are based on Departmental forecasts of the number of pensioners on IS consistent with the CSR.
2. Figures have been rounded to the nearest 10,000.
3. The future estimates of the ROSSI and earnings indices are based on Treasury forecasts.
4. "Pensioners" in this reply refers to single people aged 60 or over, or couples where one or both members is aged 60 or over.