§ Mr. William RossTo ask the Minister of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food what are his projections for BSE cases in(a) England, (b) Wales, (c) Scotland and (d) Northern Ireland for (i) 1998, (ii) 1999, (iii) 2000, (iv) 2001, (v) 2002 and (vi) 2003. [55494]
§ Mr. RookerPredictions of the number of BSE cases in Great Britain and Northern Ireland for 1998, 1999 and 2000 are set out. They are derived from the Veterinary Laboratories Agency's computer model of the epidemic together with additional data provided by the Department of Agriculture for Northern Ireland. The model predicts that the epidemic will continue to decline, a finding that is in agreement with published and unpublished findings of Professor Anderson's group at the Wellcome Trust Centre for the Epidemiology of Infectious Disease, University of Oxford.
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Year Great Britain Northern Ireland 1998 2,685–2,891 20 1999 1,223–1,741 12 2000 451–784 6 tested for sulphonamides because they are more often used in the treatment of pigs compared to cattle or sheep. The results are as follows:
Because the computer model uses data for Great Britain as a whole, it cannot provide separate predictions for England, Scotland and Wales. Supplementary estimates have therefore been made based on the proportional distribution of BSE cases in the three countries in 1997. These are less precise than the national predictions because they do not take into account movements of cattle from one part of Great Britain to another or different rates of decline in the number of BSE cases from region to region.
Year England Scotland Wales 1998 2,402–2,586 84–91 199–204 1999 1,094–1,557 38–55 91–129 2000 403–701 14–25 33–58 It is not possible to provide estimates with any precision for the years 2001, 2002 and 2003 because by this time there will be random, unpredictable effects, particularly arising from cases occurring with long incubation periods.
The VLA predictions represent 95 per cent. confidence intervals around a central estimate. It is inevitable that future predictions contain elements of uncertainty particularly when historical exposure levels to the BSE agent are not known. Nevertheless, based on information currently available, it is expected that the observed number of confirmed BSE cases for 1998 will prove to be close to the upper end of the predicted range provided above.
§ Mr. William RossTo ask the Minister of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food if he will list for(a) each EU country (b) England, (c) Wales, (d) Scotland and (e) Northern Ireland the number of BSE cases recorded in each of the last three years for which figures are readily available and the figures for this year to the latest available date, indicating for each of the United Kingdom countries the figures for each month of the current year to 30 September. [55495]
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§ Mr. RookerFigures for confirmed BSE cases in other EU countries for 1995, 1996, 1997 and to the end of September 1998, supplied to us by the Commission, are given in the following table:
EU country 1995 1996 1997 11998 Belgium — — 1 4 France 3 12 6 10 Germany2 — — 2 — Luxembourg — — 1 — Netherlands — — 2 1 Portugal 14 29 20 60 Republic of Ireland 16 73 77 46 1to 30 September 1998 2Germany has report no homebred cases of BSE Equivalent figures for each of the UK countries by year and for 1998 by month, of confirmation are as detailed. 1156W
Year of confirmation England Wales Scotland N. Ireland Total 1995 13,227 1,474 750 170 15,621 1996 7,691 703 346 82 8,822 1997 4,308 374 165 28 4,875 January to September 1998 2,272 186 74 12 2,544
Month of confirmation England Wales Scotland N. Ireland Total January 1998 281 18 13 1 313 February 1998 422 38 15 2 477 March 1998 319 31 8 0 358 April 1998 248 17 2 1 268 May 1998 216 14 9 0 239 June 1998 328 28 10 1 367 July 1998 164 13 4 0 181 August 1998 101 12 6 4 123 September 1998 193 15 7 3 218