§ Dr. GibsonTo ask the Minister of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food what assessment he has made of the effect of global warming on coastal defences. [58632]
§ Mr. Morley[holding answer 17 November 1998]: Since 1989, MAFF has set allowances for sea level rise for operating authorities to take into account when designing coastal defences. The current allowance of 4.5mm a year is based on predictions by the Inter Governmental Panel on Climate Change. This figure is adjusted regionally to take account of long term geological tilt of the UK and the allowances now in use are:
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Environment Agency Region Allowance (mm per year) North East (South of Flamborough Head), Anglian, Thames, Southern 6 South West, Wales 5 North West, North East (North of Flamborough Head) 4 These allowances apply to defences with a predicted life up to 2030; for those with an expected life beyond this period, designs should be adaptable to allow for any future change in predictions.
These allowances are kept under review as further research becomes available, including predictions provided in October 1998 by the UK Climate Impacts Programme. The current allowance should accommodate the most likely predictions in relative mean sea level until at least the middle of the next century.