§ Helen Jones
To ask the Secretary of State for the Home Department, pursuant to his oral statement of 30 July 1997,Official Report, column 341–44, on criminal justice, what estimate he has made of the likely change in the number of prison places required in England and Wales over the next 10 years. 
§ Ms Quin
[holding answer 5 March 1998]: The latest estimate of the likely change in the number of prison places required in England and Wales over the next eight years is provided in the Home Office Statistical Bulletin "Revised Projections of Long Term Trends in the Prison Population to 2005" published on 29 January 1998. Projections are not currently available beyond this eight year period.
The Bulletin estimates that the prison population will increase from the current level of around 65,000 to an average of 82,800 by 2005. This will require the Prison Service to increase capacity to hold an additional 17,800 prisoners. In addition, alternative scenarios in the projection estimate a population for 2005 of between 64,400 and 92,600.
The projections do not take into account the provisions contained in the Crime and Disorder Bill, such as home detention curfew, or the effect of the extension of electronic monitoring on a national basis.