§ Mr. Tom KingTo ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer if he will estimate the likely changes in the population of the United Kingdom up to 2050 assuming no further net immigration. [21831]
§ Mrs. LiddellThe latest (1996–based) population projections for the United Kingdom were issued at the end of November. Details of the underlying assumptions regarding future fertility, mortality and migration were published in Population Trends 89 (page 1). Based on the 49W same assumptions of future fertility and mortality, but assuming zero net migration from 1997–98 onwards, the future population of the United Kingdom would be as follows:
Projected population of the United Kingdom, assuming net zero future migration Millions Year Projected population Projected change since 1996 1996 58.8 — 2000 59.3 +0.5 2010 59.7 +0.9 2020 60.1 +1.3 2030 59.7 +0.9 2040 58.0 -0.8 2050 55.6 -3.2 Source:
Government Actuary's Department.
§ Mr. BarnesTo ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer if he will list the latest estimates by the Register General of Populations of those aged 17 years and over, plus 63 per cent. of those aged 16 years, for each district council area and parliamentary constituency in England and Wales, together with the equivalent electoral registration figures also expressed as a percentage of these population figures and in ascending order. [22292]
§ Mrs. LiddellThe information requested falls within the responsibility of the Chief Executive of the Office for National Statistics. I have asked him to arrange a reply to be given.
Letter from Tim Holt to Mr. Harry Barnes, dated 12 January 1998:
The Chancellor of the Exchequer has asked me, as Director of the Office for National Statistics, to reply to your recent question on the latest mid-year population estimates for each district council and parliamentary constituency in England and Wales, together with the equivalent electoral registration figures and for the electoral figures to be expressed as a percentage of the population figures.The attached table provides the requested information for local authority districts. Also, as requested the table is presented in ascending order by the percentage of the estimated mid-1996 population who were registered to vote. The table shows that some districts are quite a bit below 100 per cent. and some are over 100 per cent. However, these percentages need to be treated with care, as there are a number of reasons why they do not necessarily represent the percentage of eligible persons who were on the register at their qualifying address. These reasons include the fact that the electoral register may not be up to date and so may contain some redundant entries for people who had already moved elsewhere or died at the time the register was compiled. The register contains some legitimate dual registrations, for example by students and owners of second homes. This table is voluminous and copies are being placed in the Library of the House rather than reproduced in Hansard.The population estimates include residents who would be ineligible to vote and so percentages below 100 per cent. would be expected in areas where there are large numbers of such people, e.g. where there is a large American air force base. On the other hand, the electoral register but not the population estimates includes overseas voters and service voters living abroad. Finally, it must be remembered that the population data are estimates, the average absolute error of the population estimates at the local authority district level was estimated to be 2.5 per cent. in the 1995 publication "Accuracy of rolled-forward population estimates in England and Wales, 1981–91" OPCS Occasional Paper 44. This average error varies between districts and, in particular, it is 50W generally accepted that accurate estimation of the population for small areas is particularly difficult (e.g. for areas with less than around 20,000 people).Statistics on the number of people registered on the 1997 electoral rolls by parliamentary constituency was published on the 18 December 1997 in Series EL no. 24 "1997 Electoral Statistics", an ONS reference volume. They were first published by ONS on the 26 March 1997 in a Population and Health Monitor, series EL 97/1. Copies of these publications are available in the House of Commons library.ONS do not produce population estimates for parliamentary constituencies. The main use of the Registrar General's population estimates is to distribute central government revenue support grant resources between local authorities and for this purpose the estimates are required by the Department of the Environment, Transport and the Regions at local authority district level.