§ Mr. GogginsTo ask the Secretary of State for Social Security (1) what(a) the original savings assumptions were and (b) the current savings assumptions are there for the Benefit Integrity Project in (i) 1997–98, (ii) 1998–99 and (iii) 1999–2000; [37930]
(2) what factors were taken into account in the revision of savings assumptions, for the Benefit Integrity Project for (a) 1997–98, (b) 1998–99 and (c) 1999–2000. [37929]
388W
§ Mr. Denham[holding answer 6 April 1998]: The original savings estimates show that for an investment of £11.5 million in each of the three years covered by the 1996 Public Expenditure Survey, savings were assumed as £27 million in 1997–98, £40 million in 1998–99 and £35 million in 1999–2000.
These savings estimates comprise £20 million/ £30 million/£28 million from the targeted review and renewal activity undertaken by the Benefit Integrity Project and £7 million/£10 million/£7 million as a result of fraud detection activity in Disability Living Allowance generally.
The latest savings estimate for the Project alone is £5/40/40 million, and this is the figure included in the Department's Memorandum to the Social Security Select Committee. The estimated savings for the Project have fallen from £20 million to £5 million in the first year, largely because live running has shown that processing performance has been considerably slower than expected. Estimated savings for years two and three are higher than anticipated as a result of higher than expected average savings per case coupled with cases being pushed forward from year one. The original assumption was that 220,000 cases would be processed in each of the first two years. Monitoring data up to the end of December 1997 suggests that 60,00 cases will have been processed by the end of year one. The latest estimate is also based on the expectation that the Project will process 220,000 cases in year two.
The latest estimate does not take account of the impact of the additional safeguard introduced on 9 February on further evidence gathering. Nor does it include additional changes which Secretary of State and Baroness Hollis have decided to implement following consultation with the disability organisations. We will continue to work with the disability organisations and will monitor the effects of improvements.
A revised savings estimate for 1997–1998 and subsequent years will be produced when all the information up to the end of March has been received. These may need further revision as monitoring continues.