HC Deb 17 June 1997 vol 296 cc117-8W
Mr. Boswell

To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer what estimate he has made of the impact on tax revenues of a 1 per cent. increase in gross domestic product. [3443]

Dawn Primarolo

The estimate reported in Treasury Occasional paper No. 4, "Public Finances and the Cycle", is that a one per cent. increase in output relative to trend increases tax revenues by over 1 per cent. a year later. This estimate is of course subject to a margin of error and the precise effect on tax revenues will depend in part on the composition of the increase in GDP.

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