§ Mr. Clifton-BrownTo ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer if he will make a statement on the assumption in the Red Book, page 108, that unemployment will remain at 2 million until 2001–02. [8619]
§ Mr. Darling[holding answer 24 July 1997]: The figures on page 108 of the Red Book illustrate the impact of changing the assumptions underlying the public finances projections. Had the long-standing convention of assuming unemployment would remain flat at recent levels been used in the November 1996 Budget, unemployment would have been projected at 2 million, adding £500 million to the public sector borrowing requirement in 1996–97, rising to £1 billion in 1999–2000. The July 1997 Budget returned to the convention of assuming flat unemployment. As set out in paragraph 4.28, unemployment was assumed constant at its recent level of 1.65 million. This assumption was approved by the National Audit Office as
consistent with the available independent estimates".