§ Mr. TyrieTo ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer if he will request the NAO to provide an annual report to the Committee of Public Accounts on their review of the assumptions behind the economic forecast. [4186]
§ Dawn PrimaroloThe Comptroller and Auditor General, as Head of the NAO, was asked to review the key assumptions and conventions for projecting the public finances. His report was published as a Command Paper on Thursday 19 June. Copies a the report are available 115W from the Vote Office. The Government intend that, in future Budgets, there will be a continuing role for the NAO in auditing the process of forecasting the public finances.
§ Mr. TyrieTo ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer if he will list the assumptions behind the economic forecast which will be submitted to the NAO for review. [4185]
§ Dawn PrimaroloThe NAO was asked to review the following assumptions and conventions for projecting the public finances
Credit will only be taken for privatisation proceeds from sales that have already been announced.The estimate of savings generated by the "Spend to Save" programme announced in the November 1996 Budget will be limited to the direct effects of the measures, and will exclude indirect impacts such as the deterrent effect of the programme.The assumed underlying rate of growth of the economy will be 2¼ per cent. per year.A flat planning assumption for unemployment will be used rather than forecasts of actual unemployment.Assumptions for the level of interest rates will be derived from expectations in financial markets.The NAO report was published as a Command Paper on Thursday 19 June. Copies of the report are available from the Vote Office.