§ Mr. DenhamTo ask the Secretary of State for Social Security if he will recalculate charts 1 to 7 in Government economic service working paper No. 129 using pensioner incomes for 1994 which are compatible with those given in table 5 of the pensioners' income series 1994–95. [10525]
153W
§ Mr. HealdThe information could be obtained only at disproportionate cost.
PENSIM is based on data from the 1988 retirement survey, the 1987 social change and economic life initiative, which contain details of work histories essential to the way in which PENSIM forecasts pensioners' incomes, and the 1988 family expenditure survey. The results are not compatible with the pensioners' income series, which is based mainly on data from the family expenditure survey covering the financial year 1994–95.
The rates of growth in pensioners' incomes, and their individual components, forecast by PENSIM are robust and present a best estimate of what is likely to happen under certain assumptions. It is planned to restructure PENSIM and incorporate more recent data in the future.
§ Mr. DenhamTo ask the Secretary of State for Social Security what estimate he has made of net pensioner income by quintile in 2010 and 2025; and what assessment he has made of how these figures relate to the figures given in table 5 of the pensioners' income series 1994–95. [10524]
Mean net before housing cost income by population quintile: single and couple pensioners 2010 and 2025 at 1996 prices, and forecast growth since 1994 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 Mean Single pensioners 2010 £61 £89 20 per cent £107 20 per cent £139 30 per cent £293 60 per cent £138 35 per cent Growth 2025 Growth £68 15 per cent £99 30 per cent £120 30 per cent £158 45 per cent £350 95 per cent £159 55 per cent Pensioner couples 2010 £141 15 percent £193 30 percent £248 35 percent £335 45 percent £635 65 percent £310 45 percent Growth 2025 Growth £151 25 percent £205 35 percent £260 40 percent £338 45 percent £606 55 percent £312 45 percent 1 Represents less than 5 per cent. 1. Growth figures show growth from PENSIM estimates for 1994.
2. Pensioners are defined as those single aged at state pension age or above, or couple in which the husband is aged at state pension age or above.
3. Figures have been rounded to the nearest £1 and 5 per cent.
4. Quintiles for single pensioners and pensioners couples have been calculated i.e. the bottom quintile of single pensioners represents those pensioners in the bottom 20 per cent of the income distribution of single pensioners.
§ Mr. DenhamTo ask the Secretary of State for Social Security if he will recalculate the figures in table 6, paragraph 7.12 of "Options for Equality in State Pension Age" for a woman retiring aged between 55 and 65 years, with a pivotal age of 60 years, on the basis of current prices. [10526]
§ Mr. HealdThe information is in the table:
154W
Basic pension available at different agaes 1996–97 prices Age 60 'piot' (£) 55 44 56 47 57 50 58 53 59 57
§ Mr. HealdEstimated mean incomes for quintiles of the single pensioner and pensioner couple populations are given in the table for 2010 and 2025, at 1996 prices. Also shown in the table are estimates of the growth in mean income in each quintile between 1994 and 2010 and 1994 and 2025. All estimates have been made using PENSIM, a dynamic simulation model that projects pensioners' incomes into the next century. PENSIM estimates are based on a number of economic and behavioural assumptions. Due to the reliance on assumptions and the time period covered, estimates should be treated with caution, and have been rounded.
The percentage increases in 2025 for pensioner couples shown in this table correct the information I gave you in my written answer of 18 December, Official Report, columns 765–66.
The net income quintile mean estimates contained in the table are not directly comparable with those contained in table 5 of the pensioners' income series 1994–95, as they are necessarily based on a different data source, are at 1996 prices, and have been calculated using a different methodology. However, PENSIM does provide a good indication of the likely future growth in pensioners' incomes levels.
Basic pension available at different ages 1996–97 prices Age 60 'pivot' (£) 60 61 61 66 62 71 76 64 82 65 89 Source:
Government Actuary's Department.
Note:
Table 6, paragraph 7.12 of "Options for Equality in State Pension Age" applies to men and woman as it was assumed that, as now, men and women would receive the same adjustment to their pension for retiring at different ages. Thus the equivalent figures given above apply equally to men and to women.