§ Mr. Malcolm BruceTo ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer if he will estimate the(a) public sector borrowing requirement on a current balance basis in cash terms and (b) cyclically adjusted public sector borrowing requirement on a current balance basis in cash terms, for (a) 1997–98, (b) 1998–99, (c) 1999–2000, (d) 2000–01 and (e) 2001–02. [19932]
§ Mr. Darling[holding answer 10 December 1997]: Table B6 of the "Pre-Budget Report" shows the projections of the public sector current balance as a per cent. of GDP. Estimates of the cyclically adjusted current balance as a per cent. of GDP can be derived from the "Pre-Budget Report" projections of the deviations of 104W output from its trend level, shown in the table, and the published estimates of the effect of changes in GDP on the PSBR, given in the Treasury Occasional Paper "Public Finances and the Cycle". The projections of the current balance and cyclically adjusted current balance as a per cent. of GDP can be converted onto a cash basis using the projections of money GDP shown in Table B2 on page 98 of the "Pre-Budget Report."
Projected deviations of output from its trend level1 (per cent.)
- 1996–97: -¾
- 1997–98: +½
- 1998–99: 0
- 1999–2000: -¾
- 2000–01: -½
- 2001–02: -½
Note:
Central case, in which it is assumed that output was at its trend level in the first half of 1997. A positive figure indicates that output is above its trend, level.