§ Mr. CorbynTo ask the Secretary of State for the Environment what estimates have been made by his Department for 10-year projections in global temperatures in each of the last five years. [497]
§ Mr. Clappison[holding answer 28 October 1996]: The 1995 second scientific assessment from the intergovernmental panel on climate change suggests that the underlying rise in global average temperature will be about 0.1 to 0.2 deg C over the next decade. The actual temperature changes will be strongly affected by natural variability. The comparable estimate in the first IPCC scientific assessment in 1990 was 0.3 deg C per decade; the 1995 estimate is lower because it has taken into account the cooling effect of aerosols produced by man-made sulphur dioxide emissions.
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