§ Mr. CousinsTo ask the Secretary of State for the Environment what research he has commissioned into the reliability of future household and household structure projections, with particular reference to changes in external immigration assumptions. [3065]
§ Mr. ClappisonThe most recent household projections have been subject to considerable public scrutiny since their publication in March 1995, in particular by the Environment Committee in evidence for its report on housing need. While generally endorsing the projections, the Committee recommended that the Department continue to examine the extent to which household formation is affected by economic and social factors. This is currently being addressed in a research project with the department of applied economics, Cambridge university, the results of which should be available early in the new year.
One of the assumptions underlying the household projections concerns the future pattern of migration between England and the rest of the world. In recent years, international migration has departed from established patterns and become increasingly variable from year to year. Against this background, in 1992 the Government Actuary's Department, in collaboration with other Departments, undertook a thorough review of the methods used to set international migration assumptions. This led to a new methodology which was used for the first time in the preparation of the 1991-based national population projections. As with previous projections, the assumed level of migration over the projection period takes into account information from a run of previous years in order to even out the fluctuations from year to year. The robustness of sources of information on migration is kept under regular review by the Office for National Statistics.