Asbestos-related Diseases (Hansard, 1 November 1996)

§ Mr. Worthington
To ask the Secretary of State for the Environment if he will list for the most recently available date(a) the 10 districts in Great Britain which have the highest rates of death from asbestos-related diseases and (b) the national rate of death from these diseases. [867]

§ Sir Paul Beresford
The only asbestos-related disease for which the data are available is mesothelioma, and the district breakdown is available only for the period 1976–91. The 10 districts in Great Britain with the highest rates of death from mesothelioma in this period are, in descending order: Clydebank, Barrow in Furness, Plymouth, Barking and Dagenham, Portsmouth, North Tyneside, South Tyneside, Southampton, Newham and Gillingham.
The average crude rate of death from mesothelioma in Great Britain in the same period was 11 per million. In 1994, the crude death rate from mesothelioma in Great Britain was 22 per million.
These tragic deaths are because of asbestos exposures of anything between 15 and 60 years ago, before the current stringent controls on asbestos were introduced.

§ Mr. Worthington
To ask the Secretary of State for the Environment what annual death rates from asbestos-related diseases the Health and Safety Executive has forecast over the next 25 years. [868]

§ Sir Paul Beresford
The estimated number of males dying annually from the asbestos-related cancer mesothelioma in 10 years time could range from between 1,300 and 2,100; in 20 years time between 1,300 and 3,000 and in 30 years time between 1,000 and 3,200. These estimates are based on a paper "The Continuing increase in mesothelioma mortality in Britain" which was published inThe Lancet on 3 March 1995. This paper discusses the uncertainties attached to the projections which increase very significantly beyond about 2010. It is therefore inappropriate to forecast a figure for each separate year. Projected figures for females are not available.
Currently, there are estimated to be one or two deaths from asbestos-related lung cancer for each death from mesothelioma. The falling prevalence of smoking is likely to reduce this ratio in the future.