§ Mr. Kirkhope
An assessment of the impact of the national lottery on the horserace betting levy has been618W published today. This fulfils an undertaking made during the passage of the National Lottery etc. Bill.
The paper has been prepared by the economics unit of the Home Office. It examines trends in off-course betting expenditure, on which the levy closely depends. The main conclusions are as follows: off-course betting expenditure during 1995 was 6 per cent. lower in real terms than in 1994; a statistical analysis of trends in off-course betting expenditure suggests that it might have been expected to rise by about 5 per cent. in real terms during this period; the study indicates that the national lottery has reduced spending on off-course betting although other special factors, such as the fixture list, may also be involved; and some uncertainty remains about the importance of other special factors and estimates of the size of the national lottery's effect remain imprecise.