§ Mr. Chris SmithTo ask the Secretary of State for Social Security what estimates he has made of(a) the likely revenue effects and (b) the numbers participating in respect of the back-to-work bonus scheme in (i) 1996–97, (ii) 1997–98 and (iii) 1998–99. [13409]
§ Mr. Roger EvansThe information is set out in the table:
1996–97 1997–98 1998–99 Estimated gross cost of the back-to-work bonus £15 million £45 million £65 million Estimated numbers receiving a bonus 60,000 130,000 150,000 (i) Estimates based on 2.1 million unemployed.
(ii) The table shows the gross cost of the back to work bonus scheme. However, once behavioural effects are taken into account we expect that the scheme will be broadly cost neutral. The behavioural effects are very difficult to assess accurately. In particular, the likely take up of the bonus in the first 18 months is very uncertain.