§ Mr. Flynn
To ask the Secretary of State for Social Security how many pensioners would be entitled to income support in(a) 2000–01 and (b) 2010–11 if income support rates were increased in 1998 and subsequent years in line with average earnings and the basic pension in line with (i) average earnings and (ii) prices. 773W
§ Mr. Roger Evans
The information is set out in the table.
Number of pensioners in receipt of income support, assuming that income support is increased in line with average earnings in 1998 and subsequent years 2000 –01 2010 –11 Basic retirement pension increasing in line with average earnings 1,600,000 1,000,000 Basic retirement pension increasing in line with prices 1,700,000 1,400,000
1. Pensioners are defined as those single at state pension age or above, or couples in which the husband is at state pension age or above.
2. Figures have been rounded to the nearest 100,000.
3. Estimates have been made using pension simulation (Pensim) and are based on a number of economic and behavioural assumptions, in particular that prices increase by an average of 3.8 per cent. per year (although this varies between years), and that average earnings increase by 1.5 per cent. per year above prices. Further details of the methodology and assumptions used by Pensim are outlined in GES working paper no. 129 "PENSIM: A Dynamic Simulation Model of Pensioner Incomes", a copy of which is available in the Library.