§ Mr. DafisTo ask the Secretary of State for the Environment what is his estimate of the change in the annual level of United Kingdom carbon dioxide emissions between the year 2000 and 2012, on the basis of current policies.
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§ Mr. AtkinsIt is not possible to estimate future changes in United Kingdom carbon dioxide emissions in 2000 and 2012 precisely. The analysis published in "Climate Change—the UK Programme" draws on the range of scenarios in energy paper 59. These suggest on the basis of past trends that United Kingdom emissions in 2000 could be between 3 million tonnes of carbon below and 19 million tonnes of carbon above the 1990 level; and in 2012 between 15 and 80 million tonnes of carbon higher than in 1990. The measures in the United Kingdom's programme should reduce emissions in 2000 by some 10 million tonnes of carbon, but it is not yet possible to assess what effect emissions reduction measures could have by 2012.