HC Deb 08 December 1994 vol 251 cc374-6W
Ms Harman

To ask the Secretary of State for Social Security what is the latest estimate of the number of unemployed people, listing figures for men and women and separately for those aged under 25 years and those aged 25 years and over who would not qualify for unemployment benefit if the period of entitlement were reduced from 12 months to six months showing the number of claimants(a) likely to be affected over a full operational year and (b) likely to be affected at any one point in an operational year; how many would be eligible for income support; how many are expected to apply for credits of national insurance contributions; what the net saving to the Exchequer would be; and if he will make a statement.

Mr. Roger Evans

Information on the numbers affected at any one point in time is in the table. Estimates of the number who are likely to be affected over an operational year are not available. We estimate that approximately 45,000 people who would have no entitlement to unemployment benefit or income support would decide to sign on in order to be credited with national insurance contributions. Our current

All Men Women Under 25 Over 25
A. Estimated number who lose entitlement to unemployment benefit 165,000 115,000 45,000 30,000 135,000
B. Of numbers in A the estimated number entitled to income support 95,000 75,000 20,000 25,000 70,000
C. Of numbers in A estimated number entitled number entitled to neither unemployment benefit nor income support 70,000 45,000 25,000 5,000 65,000

Notes:

Figures may not sum due to rounding.

All costs/savings estimates rounded to the nearest £10 million. All caseload estimates rounded to the nearest 5,000.

All estimates in 1994–95 prices.

Estimates assume 2.4 million unemployed claimants and 500,000 UB cases.

Estimates do not include tax or behavioural implications, except for the estimate of those who will continue to sign to claim NI credits. In this case we have assumed that the same number will continue to sign if UB exhausts after six months as currently continue to sign when UB exhausts after 12 months.

unemployment assumptions setting the length of entitlement to unemployment benefit at six months rather than 12 months is estimated to result in net savings of £170 million.