§ Mr. RobathanTo ask the Secretary of State for the Environment what calculations he has made concerning the contributions that each of the various policy measures now in place could contribute to reducing carbon dioxide emissions between 1990 and 2000, as compared to the predictions made in Energy Paper 59.
§ Mr. MacleanThe annex to the climate change discussion document, placed in the Library of the House, described measures already in hand at the end of 1992 to reduce CO2 emissions. The effect of most of these measures were included in the CO2 projections set out in "Energy Paper 59"—EP 59.
The discussion document also identified a number of new measures, the effect of which would be to reduce emissions below the projected trend in EP 59, by some 3 to 5 MtC. The most important of these is the establishment of the Energy Saving Trust. I refer my hon. Friend to the answer I gave to the hon. Member for Islington, South and Finsbury (Mr. Smith) for a description of these measures and their estimated effect on emissions—Official Report, 22 March 1993, column 495.
In his March Budget statement, my right hon. Friend the Chancellor of the Exchequer announced two measures which will play a significant part in the CO2 programme. The introduction of VAT on domestic fuel and power, is estimated to lead savings in CO2 emissions of some 1.5 MtC. The strategy of rising transport fuel duties, with a commitment to increase duties on average by at least 3 per 84W cent. in real terms in future Budgets in addition to the 10 per cent. increases announced in the March Budget, is similarly expected to lead to savings in CO2 emissions of some 1.5 MtC.
On the basis of EP 59 a projection for CO2 emissions in the year 2000 of 170 MtC provides a reasonable baseline for our programme. This implies that savings of some 10 MtC will be needed to meet the convention commitment. Taking all the above developments together, some two thirds of Britain's programme is now in place.