§ Mr. Matthew BanksTo ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer what action he has taken to improve macroeconomic forecasting.
§ Mr. LamontI have introduced a number of measures. First, in my Mansion House speech on 29 October I announced my proposal to invite a number of independent forecasters to join a new forecasting panel. This will meet at regular intervals and then publish an assessment which will be used to inform Government policy decisions alongside the Treasury's own forecast.
Secondly, this year's autumn statement includes for the first time some details of how the Government's own economic forecast compares with the view other organisations have taken.
Thirdly, Treasury officials now regularly meet economists from industry to discuss current business conditions.
Fourthly, both I and my predecessor have taken steps to improve the quality of economic statistics on which forecasts are based.
Fifthly, efforts are being made to strengthen the analytical basis of Treasury forecasting.
Nevertheless, it is important to recognise that economic forecasts will always be subject to a considerable degree of uncertainty.