§ Mr. Cartwright
To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer on what he bases his February forecast of a 13.3 per cent. increase in the revenue from alcohol duties for 1990–91; and if he will make a statement.
§ Mrs. Gillian Shephard
Several factors were taken into account in deriving the forecast which is based on the374W Chancellor's 1990 autumn statement. The most important of these were the forecast growth in real consumers' expenditure in 1990, the 1990 Budget changes in excise duties on alcoholic drinks and the path of revenue receipts in the year to date at the time the forecast was made.
An estimate of the revenue outturn in 1990–91 will be available when the Chancellor issues his 1991 Financial Statement and Budget Report.