HC Deb 30 October 1990 vol 178 cc483-91W
Dr. Bray

To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer what estimates he has of the reductions in the expected values of the balancing items in the personal sector, industrial and commercial companies, financial sector, general Government sector and overseas sector in the national accounts as a result of the improvements in Government statistics made since 15 February 1989; when he expects the reductions to be achieved; and what further improvements he is seeking.

Mr. Maples

It is too soon to judge the long-term effects on sectorial balancing items of the changes in Government statistics proposed in February 1989 and subsequently. However, the initial estimates of sectorial balancing items for 1988 (published in "Financial Statistics" April 1989) have subsequently been reduced, particularly for the overseas sector (by £7.1 billion), the industrial and commercial companies' sector (by £11.4 billion) and the personal sector (by £16.0 billion): see "Financial Statistics" for September 1990, a copy of which is in the Library. Reductions have also been made to the balancing items in earlier years, particularly for the overseas sector.

Further reductions are anticipated as the effects of the programme of changes are implemented during the next year or so.

Dr. Bray

To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer what consideration has been given since 15 February 1989 by the Central Statistical Office to the development of the family expenditure survey as a comprehensive data source on all items of household income, expenditure and financial transactions.

Mr. Maples

Households are sensitive to questions regarding their incomes and financial transactions and it is therefore difficult to obtain such data from the family expenditure survey (FES). Priority is therefore being given to pursuing alternative sources of this information. Development of the family expenditure survey will be considered if no satisfactory alternatives are found.

Dr. Bray

To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer (1) what work has been undertaken since 15 February 1989 by the Central Statistical Office and the Inland Revenue on developing an independent basis for estimating the evasion adjustment for the hidden economy in the income estimate for gross domestic product;

(2) whether the first annual review by the Central Statistical Office of the balance of statistical reporting among industries has been completed; and what action has ensued;

(3) what steps have been taken to incorporate quality changes more adequately into output price indices since 15 February 1989;

(4) whether data on value added tax receipts are now used in constructing the output measure of the gross domestic product;

(5) what steps have been undertaken since 15 February 1989 to contract out the collection and processing of data by the Central Statistical Office;

(6) what investigation has been made by Her Majesty's Customs and Excise since 15 February 1989 into possible under-recording of exports entered prior to shipment; and what actions have been taken as a result;

(7) what feasibility study has been made of the use of company accounting systems to provide information on income, expenditure and financial transactions;

(8) whether the Inland Revenue is using tax records to produce better estimates of monetary sector profits excluding net interest receipts;

(9) what new sources have been used since 15 February 1989 on personal sector financial transactions;

(10) what firm agreements have been made with other Departments by the Central Statistical Office on the definition and quality of their contributions to the national accounts since 15 February 1989.

Mr. Maples

I refer the hon. Member to the implementation report on the Pick ford scrutiny of Government economic statistics, a copy of which has been placed in the Library.

Dr. Bray

To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer what estimates he has of the reduction in the expected error in the gross domestic product, as measured by the gap between the income and expenditure measures, as a percentage of the gross domestic product, to be expected from the improvements in Government statistics made since 15 February 1989; when he expects the reduction to be achieved; and what further improvements he is seeking.

Mr. Maples

The gap between the income and expenditure measures of gross domestic product has been reduced by the introduction of (1) national accounts statistical adjustments, which have been made to the expenditure measure GDP(E) in the latest years to bring it more into line with the output GDP(O) and income GDP(I) measures; and (2) alignment adjustments, which are applied to the quarterly estimates of both GDP(E) and GDP(I) so that their short-term growth better reflects that of the preferred GDP(O) measure for indicating short-term movements.

These adjustments are described more fully in the quarterly national accounts articles in "Economic Trends" and in the national accounts Blue Book.

An announcement by the Chancellor of the Exchequer on 17 May 1990 of a series of further measures to improve the quality of economic statistics included several aimed at increasing the reliability of the income and expenditure measures. These are collecting more information on companies' investment, stockbuilding and profits, using statutory inquiries where possible; collecting more information on external trade in services; and carrying out a survey into the procedures followed for the valuation of external trade in goods.

The main aim of these measures is to provide timely estimates of better quality. This should lead to a reduction in the national accounts statistical adjustments necessary to produce a coherent set of national accounts.

A comprehensive statement on the current state of official economic statistics, including plans for the future on how further improvements to the statistics can be achieved, was submitted in evidence to the Treasury and Civil Service Select Committee on Wednesday 24 October 1990, and a copy of this memorandum lodged in the House of Commons Library.

Dr. Bray

To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer what consideration he has given to "Official Statistics: Counting with Confidence", the report of a working party of the Royal Statistical Society under the chairmanship of Professor Peter G. Moore, president of the society, a copy of which has been sent to him; and if he will make a statement.

Mr. Maples

The working party's report has been considered. The Government welcome its conclusions that there is no evidence of any failure of integrity by members of the Government statistical service. But the Government do not intend to change further the way in which successive Governments have organised official statistical services by centralising all statistical services. I have asked the director of the Central Statistical Office to consider with other Government Departments, and in consultation with the RSS working party, how the other concerns expressed in its report might be met.

Dr. Bray

To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer what priority he accords to public confidence in the integrity of official statistics; and what steps he is taking to increase it.

Mr. Maples

The Government accord high priority to maintaining public confidence in the integrity of official statistics. Where necessary, steps are taken to improve the quality of official statistics, as in the package of improvements announced by the Chancellor on 17 May in respect of economic statistics.

Dr. Bray

To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer what safeguards exist to protect the integrity of official statistics against political interference by Ministers; and what steps he proposes to take to strengthen those safeguards.

Mr. Maples

Members of the Government statistical service follow the practices set out in the guidance note on "Integrity in the Government Statistical Service" issued by the then head of the GSS, Sir John Boreham and published in pages 68.19 and 68.20 of "Statistical News" in February 1985, a copy of which is available in the Library.

Dr. Bray

To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer what public mechanism is available to the head of the Government statistical service in response to a ministerial decision which, in his view, might compromise the integrity of the service.

Mr. Maples

Members of the Government statistical service follow the practices set out in the guidance note on "Integrity in the Government Statistical Service" issued by the then head of the GSS, Sir John Boreham and published in pages 68.19 and 68.20 of "Statistical News" in February 1985, a copy of which is available in the Library.

The head of the Government statistical service, like other civil servants, would have available the remedies set out in the memorandum entitled "The Duties and Responsibilities of Civil Servants", reported by the Prime Minister to the House on 2 December 1987, at columns 572–75. He also has right of direct access to the Prime Minister if he feels there is any problem on the integrity of statistics.

Dr. Bray

To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer (1) what account the Government take of needs other than their own in determining the work of the Government statistical service;

(2) what specific consideration is given to the information needs of Parliament, business, academia, the media and the general public in determining the work of the Government statistical service.

Mr. Maples

Government Departments do, where necessary, consult relevant bodies about the collection and use of statistics. In addition some statistical information is collected for the European Community under the terms of certain Community measures.

The large body of data collected is, where practicable, made available outside Government on terms which cover the costs of dissemination.

Dr. Bray

To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer whether he has any plans to review the present arrangements in the Government statistical service for the co-ordination of methodology, definitions, scope, timing of publications, and computer hardware and software, between Departments; and what sanctions are available to the Central Statistical Office to secure the development of a coherent statistical system.

Mr. Maples

I am satisfied that existing arrangements are adequate for ensuring that issues of common concern are resolved satisfactorily between Departments.

Dr. Bray

To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer (1) in what form United Kingdom official statisticians will make primary returns available to the Statistical Office of the European Communities for further analysis, with appropriate safeguards for confidentiality of individual returns, after 1992;

(2) whether primary statistical returns which will be made available to the statistical office of the European Communities after 1992 will be available in the same form to other United Kingdom Government Departments and to users outside Government for further analysis.

Mr. Maples

Council regulation 1588/90 of 11 June 1990 on the transmission of data subject to statistical confidentiality to the Statistical Office of the European Communities (Eurostat) came into force on 18 June 1990. The regulation is an enabling measure only. Further regulations will be necessary to specify any information which might be transmitted to Eurostat. It is, however, expected that it would rarely be necessary to transmit primary returns to Eurostat. There are no plans for changing the procedures within the United Kingdom.

Dr. Bray

To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer whether he allows the Central Statistical Office to respond when public comment on published statistics is so selective as to distort the overall conclusions from the statistics.

Mr. Maples

When public commentary on its statistics involves statements that are factually incorrect, the CSO can and does draw attention to this publicly.

Dr. Bray

To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer what statistical surveys have been made statutory since 15 February 1989 to improve the quality of data at less cost to business.

Mr. Maples

Since that date the following inquiries to business have been converted from voluntary to statutory status:

  • Monthly sales inquiries for the non-engineering sectors.
  • Supplementary quarterly sales inquiries for Wales and Scotland.
  • Quarterly inquiry into stockbuilding in the production industries.
  • Quarterly inquiry into direct investment.
  • Quarterly inquiry into iron castings (in addition the frequency of this inquiry has been reduced to annual).

Plans for the conversion to statutory status are well advanced for the following additional inquiries:

  • Quarterly inquiry into wholesalers stockbuilding.
  • Quarterly inquiry into capital expenditure.

Responsibility for those inquiries was transferred to the Central Statistical Office from the Department of Trade and Industry on 31 July 1989. The conversion to statutory status for those inquiries, excepting the sales inquiries, is being made as part of the package of further improvements announced by the Chancellor on 17 May 1990 and is accompanied by increases in sample size to meet the required standards of reliability. However, the use of statutory inquiries enables results to those standards to be obtained at less cost and with a fairer distribution of response burdens among businesses than would otherwise have been necessary.

Dr. Bray

To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer whether he will make the tables in the Government expenditure plans available in spreadsheet form on floppy discs, complete with the commands, functions and macros which specify the relations between the tables, and between the tables and the national accounts available on floppy discs from the Central Statistical Office.

Mr. Maples

We do not, at present, have any plans to make tables on public expenditure data available on floppy disc.

Dr. Bray

To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer what assessment he has made of the scope for improvements in the quality of Government statistics in the absence of the centralisation in a central statistical service of data definition, collection, processing, primary analysis and publication as recommended by the July 1990 report "Official Statistics: Counting with Confidence," of a working party of the Royal Statistical Society under the chairmanship of Professor Peter G. Moore; and what scope he had identified for improvements in statistics and policy units in major Departments and in the reconciliation and mutual checking of information from statistical returns, administrative sources, tax data and company accounts.

Mr. Maples

The Government statistical service seeks continuously to make improvements in the quality of Government statistics where these represent value for money. The centralisation of data definitions, collection processing, primary analysis and publication is not a necessary condition for achieving all these improvements. Where such centralised co-ordination can contribute to making improvements it is carried out by the Central Statistical Office through a system of interdepartmental committees. The reconciliation and checking of information from statistical returns, administrative sources, tax data and company accounts is subject to constraints on the availability of such data, but where necessary and feasible such work is carried out. The organisation of statistical work in other Departments is a matter for the relevant Minister.

Dr. Bray

To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer what study he is making of the opportunity offered by the requirement to make primary returns available to the statistical office of the European Communities to improve the coherence and accuracy of United Kingdom statistics and the use made of modern information technology.

Mr. Maples

None. It is not expected that many primary returns will be made to the Statistical Office of the European Communities.

Dr. Bray

To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer what arrangements exist for the systematic evaluation of Government statistics and for research upon statistical methodology by which they can be improved.

Mr. Maples

The evaluation of statistics is a normal part of the function of those responsible for their production and methodological research is also carried out in the relevant parts of the Government statistical service. Since the reorganisation of the Central Statistical Office, a unit concerned with the overall quality of the national accounts has carried out evaluation work in selected areas. In addition, two statistical techniques units in the Central Statistical Office, one in London and one in Newport, are responsible for the application of existing statistical methodology to improve the quality of statistics; these units also undertake research to develop new techniques or extend the scope of existing ones.

Dr. Bray

To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer what provision has been made in 1990–91 for expenditure specifically on the evaluation of statistics and research into statistical methodology by the Central Statistical Office.

Mr. Maples

Seven posts are devoted full time to the evaluation of statistics and research into statistical methodology. In addition, the statisticians concerned with the regular production of statistics will be involved in the evaluation of their output. About £65,000 of the budget for external research has been earmarked for work in evaluation and research in methodology.

Dr. Bray

To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer how many visiting and exchange appointments were made by the Central Statistical Office in 1989–90 to other statistical organisations outside Government and abroad, respectively.

Mr. Maples

In 1989–90 the Central Statistical Office seconded two members of staff to the Statistical Office of the European Communities. In addition there are regular working contacts with statistical organisations outside Government in the United Kingdom and with other national and international statistical organisations.

Dr. Bray

To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer what control the Central Statistical Office has over the timing of the publication of Government statistics.

Mr. Maples

The Central Statistical Office publishes its statistics as soon as possible after they are compiled. Information about the date and time of release of its major statistical outputs is generally announced one month in advance by means of a regular press notice. Exceptionally, notification of the release of the monthly overseas trade statistics is provided six months in advance and for the retail prices and tax and price indices, notification is given annually in advance.

The CSO has no responsibility for the publication of statistics produced by other Departments. The release dates of some of the major series are covered by the special press notice referred to. I understand that, as a general rule, departmental practice is to publish statistics as soon as possible after their compilation.

Dr. Bray

To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer what are the practices controlling guidance given to outsiders by Ministers and officials based on estimates and access to final figures of statistics before their publication.

Mr. Maples

Most economic statistics are published to prearranged timetables, with minimum delay once they are finalised. Circulation to Ministers and officials before publication is strictly limited on a "need to know" basis. Ministers are fully aware of their responsibility to observe strict propriety in their use of any information obtained in their ministerial capacity. Officials are similarly aware of their responsibility and are subject to departmental discipline in the event of any inappropriate use of information obtained in their official capacity.

Dr. Bray

To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer what embargos and controls by the Government statistical service exist on access to figures before Government statistical results are publicly available.

Mr. Maples

The Central Statistical Office restricts advance notification of the figures it compiles to those with an operational need to know them. Similar rules apply throughout Government but their precise application is obviously a matter for individual Departments.

Dr. Bray

To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer whether(a) the Government statistical service or (b) any independent outside advisory body advises Ministers about which statistics should be collected or discontinued; and if he will make a statement.

Mr. Maples

The Government statistical service is decentralised and it is therefore for Ministers with departmental statistical directorates to comment on the advice about statistics which they receive.

The Chancellor receives advice on the collection of statistics from the director of the Central Statistical Office, from Inland Revenue and Customs and Excise directors of statistics and from Treasury officials. At the request of Ministers the Retail Prices Index Advisory Committee has from time to time considered specific issues and made recommendations. The Census of Production Advisory Committee also advises on census of production matters from time to time. In addition the Chancellor receives representations on the collection or discontinuation of statistics from many organisations.

Dr. Bray

To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer what changes have been made in the size of the purchases inquiry for input-output tables since 15 February 1989; and what changes in the accuracy of the tables will result.

Mr. Maples

Since 15 February 1989, two major changes have been made to the size of the purchases inquiry being conducted for the year 1989 in order to reduce the burden on business.

The number of forms sent out to industry has been reduced from the proposed 10,600 to 9,300. This has reduced expected overall coverage in terms of employment from 78 per cent. to 72 per cent.

The average number of questions asked on the forms has been reduced from 32 to 17.

The needs of the input-output tables were a major consideration in deciding how to minimise the effect of the reductions on the results. There will be a small reduction in accuracy in that part of the tables showing the industrial structure of production industries, due to the reduced coverage and number of questions asked. This reduction in accuracy will not significantly affect the use of the tables in Government, both as an aid in industry economic analysis and as a framework within which to evaluate estimates for components of the national accounts.

Dr. Bray

To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer which of the recommendations of the Pickford review of Government economic statistics which the Government accepted in whole or in part were not implemented by the dates given in the note by the Central Statistical Office of 15 February 1989.

Mr. Maples

There were delays in implementation of recommendations 3, 14, 24, 27 and 30 beyond the target dates given in the action plan dated 15 February 1989. Implementation of recommendations 7 and 8 in July 1989, involving the introduction of new monthly sales inquiries to manufacturing industry, was in advance of the target date of January 1990. The reasons for any delay, which include the modification or extension of the original recommendations, are given in the implementation report on the Pickford scrutiny of Government economic statistics, which has been placed in the Library.

Dr. Bray

To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer how many statisticians are employed in the statistical techniques units in the Central Statistical Office and the Business Statistics Office in monitoring technical aspects of existing surveys and in planning new ones.

Mr. Maples

Two professional statisticians.

Dr. Bray

To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer what Central Statistical Office data are issued on floppy disc with the printed publications, along the lines of the 1990 annual review of Government-funded research and development.

Mr. Maples

The latest edition of input-output tables for the United Kingdom included a floppy disc with the printed publication. In addition, the Central Statistical Office's databank service offers a range of regularly updated macro-economic and related statistical data on floppy disc. This includes the contents of "Economic Trends", "Monthly Digest of Statistics", "Financial Statistics", and the "Monthly Review of External Trade Statistics" as well as the annual Pink Book and Blue Book publications and a number of other datasets prepared for release alongside the main macro-economic press notices.

Dr. Bray

To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer whether the Business Statistics Office proposes to integrate its registers with those of the Department of Employment.

Mr. Maples

Treasury and Department of Employment Ministers have agreed to a feasibility study of a proposal to integrate the Central Statistical Office and Department of Employment's registers of businesses. The study is due to report during 1991 on the costs and benefits of implementing the proposal.