§ Mr. Gerald BowdenTo ask the Secretary of State for Transport how the policies set out in the Government's White Paper "This Common Inheritance" will affect his Department's national road traffic forecasts and the appraisal of trunk road schemes.
§ Mr. ParkinsonThe national road traffic forecasts published in 1989 provide a broad range of future levels of road traffic demand, which remains the best available view. The forecasts clearly might be affected by future changes in, for example, regulations or taxation; but there is no reason to change them at this stage, since they are broad enough to cover the general effect of the policies in "This Common Inheritance". The forecasts do not represent a target. The Government's policy is not to meet all demand in all circumstances, but only where to do so is justified, taking into account economic and environmental considerations.
The recent meeting of the second world climate conference discussed the need for countries to control their emissions of greenhouse gases. "This Common Inheritance" refers to the Government's willingness, if other countries take similar action, to set themselves the target of returning CO2 emissions to 1990 levels by 2005. A number of changes are identified which could contribute to slowing the growth of CO2 emissions in the transport sector. Many of these options would have no direct effect on the demand for travel, particularly changes in vehicle technology, individual choice of vehicles, and driving behaviour. The uncertainties surrounding the target, and the way in which any target might be achieved, are therefore so great that there is no sound basis for changing forecasts of travel demand.
The Department will therefore continue to use the 1989 NRTF as the basis for the local forecasts used in appraising trunk road improvements. Where a local 183W authority has firm plans for actions to influence travel needs and choice, these plans will be taken into account directly in the preparation of the local traffic forecasts for the appraisal of a particular road improvement. (The local forecasts are based on NRTF, but also take account of local factors, such as car ownership, population and employment, and local authority plans.) The NRTF will be kept under review, in the light of actual experience of traffic growth and other changes.