§ Mr. Alfred Morris
To ask the Secretary of State for Social Security what he estimates will be the cost of the additional pensions payable with invalidity benefit at 1989–90 prices in each of the tax years 1990–91, 2000–01, 2010–11, and 2020–21(a) if clause 4 of the Social Security Bill is enacted (b) if the present position with regards to the computation of additional pension for the purposes of invalidity pension remains unchanged and (c) if the Bill is amended to provide for guaranteed minimum pensions in respect of tax years after 1990–91 to be deducted from the additional pension payable with invalidity pension but no other change is made with regard to the computation of additional pension for purposes of invalidity pension; and, in each case, what proportion of the cost he estimates will relate to persons then aged 60 years and over.
§ Mr. Scott
Projections of expenditure on additional pension with invalidity benefit at 1989–90 prices under current legislation and under the clause 4 proposals are as follows. These estimates are subject to considerable margins of uncertainty, particularly in the longer term.
Year Current Legislation £ million Clause 4 Proposals £ million 1990–91 565 565 2000–01 1,850 1,375 2010–11 2,225 1,200 2020–21 2,500 975
The figures illustrating the effect of the proposals in "The Way Ahead" show the gross effect on expenditure. The net effect of the proposals on social security spending will be less because of offsetting changes in invalidity allowance and income-related benefits.
I regret that information to answer (c) or to apportion the costs between persons under and over age 60 is not available and could be obtained only at disproportionate cost.