§ Mr. Michael
To ask the Secretary of State for Wales (I) what basis and information sources he used in reaching his estimate of the increase in the number of elderly people in Wales over the next 20 years; and what research his Department has undertaken to verify this prediction;
(2) what basis he used in reaching his estimate of the number of very elderly people in Wales over the next 20 years; and what research his Department has undertaken to verify this prediction.11W
§ Mr. Grist
Annual estimates of the population including age structure are made by the Office of Population Censuses and Surveys (OPCS) using:
- (i) the results of the 1981 census;
- (ii) registration of subsequent births and deaths; and
- (iii) estimates of migration derived from electoral rolls, the National Health Service Central Register and the International Passenger Survey.
National projections produced by the Government Actuary's Department take the OPCS annual estimate as the base and apply assumptions on future mortality, fertility and migration patterns. Such assumptions, developed in consultation with relevant Departments, are described in "Population projections 1987–2027" series PP2 No. 16, OPCS, and a copy is in the Library. Current population projections can only be verified when the results of future censuses become available.