§ Mr. Andrew SmithTo ask the Secretary of State for Education and Science if he will provide estimates of the costs and savings, as per annex E of the White Paper, in respect of(a) net change in grant, (b) net change in benefits, (c) gross loan outlay, (d) loan repayments and (e) public sector borrowing requirement effect for each of the years from 1990 to 2027, as in annex E of Cmd. 520, on the basis that a 30 per cent. age participation rate is attained by 2015, showing the effects of (i) 80 per cent. take-up, (ii) 90 per cent. take-up and (iii) 100 per cent. take-up.
Mr. JacksonThe Department does not currently project student numbers in higher education beyond the turn of the century.
The following tables show annex E revised to take account of the increase in student numbers since Cm. 520 was published. The tables show the effect of take-up rates of 80 and 100 per cent., and of inflation at 3, 5 and 8 per cent.
37W
Table (i) Top-up loans costings Revised student number projections Costs and saving—3 per cent. inflation—80 per cent. take-up United Kingdom (£ million, 1990 prices) Year Change in grant Change in benefits Loan outlay Loan repayments PSBR effect 1990 0 -68 178 0 110 1991 -24 -69 214 2 118 1992 -46 -70 243 10 118 1993 -66 -69 269 23 110 1994 -86 -69 294 43 96 1995 -105 -69 318 68 77 1996 -126 -69 347 93 59 1997 -149 -72 384 115 48 1998 -174 -75 426 134 42 1999 -199 -77 464 150 39 2000 -221 -78 497 163 35 2001 -240 -78 522 181 22
Year Change in grant Change in benefits Loan outlay Loan repayments PSBR effect 2002 -258 -78 545 206 3 2003 -275 -78 568 225 -11 2004 -292 -78 591 240 -19 2005 -309 -78 613 251 -26 2006 -325 -78 634 260 -29 2007 -340 -78 654 264 -29 2008 -358 -78 669 278 -45 2009 -358 -78 669 303 -70 2010 -358 -78 669 333 -100 2011 -358 -78 669 358 -125 2012 -358 -78 669 379 -146 2013 -358 -78 669 401 -168 2014 -358 -78 669 420 -187 2015 -358 -78 669 436 -203 2016 -358 -78 669 449 -216 2017 -358 -78 669 461 -227 2018 -358 -78 669 470 -237 2019 -358 -78 669 477 -244 2020 -358 -78 669 484 -251 2021 -358 -78 669 492 -258 2022 -358 -78 669 499 -266 2023 -358 -78 669 503 -270 2024 -358 -78 669 505 -272 2025 -358 -78 669 507 -274 2026 -358 -78 669 509 -275 2027 -358 -78 669 510 -276 38W
Table (ii) Top-up loans costings Revised student number projections Costs and saving 3 per cent. inflation 100 per cent. take-up United Kingdom (£ million, 1990 prices) Year Change in grant Change in benefits Loan outlay Loan repayments PSBR effect 1990 0 -68 222 0 155 1991 -24 -69 267 3 170 1992 -46 -70 304 12 176 1993 -66 -69 336 29 172 1994 -86 -69 367 53 159 1995 -105 -69 398 85 139 1996 -126 -69 434 116 123 1997 -149 -72 480 144 115 1998 -174 -75 532 168 115 1999 -199 -77 581 187 117 2000 -221 -78 621 204 118 2001 -240 -78 652 226 108 2002 -258 -78 682 257 88 2003 -275 -78 711 282 75 2004 -292 -78 739 299 68 2005 -309 -78 766 314 65 2006 -325 -78 792 325 64 2007 -340 -78 818 331 69 2008 -358 -78 836 347 53 2009 -358 -78 836 379 21 2010 -358 -78 836 416 -16 2011 -358 -78 836 448 -48 2012 -358 -78 836 474 -73 2013 -358 -78 836 501 -101 2014 -358 -78 836 525 -124 2015 -358 -78 836 545 -144 2016 -358 -78 836 561 -161 2017 -358 -78 836 576 -175 2018 -358 -78 836 588 -187 2019 -358 -78 836 596 -196 2020 -358 -78 836 605 -205 2021 -358 -78 836 615 -214 2022 -358 -78 836 623 -223 2023 -358 -78 836 629 -229 2024 -358 -78 836 632 -231 2025 -358 -78 836 634 -233 2026 -358 -78 836 636 -235 2027 -358 -78 836 637 -237
Table (iii) Top-up loans costings Revised student number projections Costs and saving 5 per cent. inflation 80 per cent. take-up United Kingdom (£ million, 1990 prices) Year Change in grant Change in benefits Loan outlay Loan repayments PSBR effect 1990 0 -68 178 0 110 1991 -24 -69 214 2 118 1992 -60 -70 261 10 122 1993 -93 -69 304 23 119 1994 -124 -69 343 44 107 1995 -153 -69 381 71 89 1996 -184 -69 424 99 72 1997 -218 -72 475 125 61 1998 -256 -75 533 149 54 1999 -291 -77 586 170 48 2000 -323 -78 631 189 41 2001 -348 -78 664 214 25 2002 -359 -78 669 246 -14 2003 -359 -78 669 273 -41 2004 -359 -78 669 293 -61 2005 -359 -78 669 308 -76 2006 -359 -78 669 318 -86 2007 -359 -78 669 322 -90 2008 -359 -78 669 334 -102 2009 -359 -78 669 360 -128 2010 -359 -78 669 390 -158 2011 -359 -78 669 413 -181 2012 -359 -78 669 429 -197 2013 -359 -78 669 446 -214 2014 -359 -78 669 459 -227 2015 -359 -78 669 469 -237 2016 -359 -78 669 476 -244 2017 -359 -78 669 483 -251 2018 -359 -78 669 488 -256 2019 -359 -78 669 491 -259 2020 -359 -78 669 496 -264 2021 -359 -78 669 502 -270 2022 -359 -78 669 508 -276 2023 -359 -78 669 511 -279 2024 -359 -78 669 512 -280 2025 -359 -78 669 512 -280 2026 -359 -78 669 512 -280 2027 -359 -78 669 512 -280 39W
Table (iv) Top-up loans costings Revised student number projections Costs and saving 5 per cent. inflation 100 per cent. take-up United Kingdom (£ million, 1990 prices) Year Change in grant Change in benefits Loan outlay Loan repayments PSBR effect 1990 0 -66 222 0 155 1991 -24 -69 267 3 170 1992 -60 -70 327 12 185 1993 -93 -69 379 29 189 1994 -124 -69 429 55 182 1995 -153 -69 477 89 167 1996 -184 -69 530 124 153 1997 -218 -72 594 156 148 1998 -256 -75 666 186 150 1999 -291 -77 733 212 152 2000 -323 -78 783 236 152 2001 -348 -78 831 267 137 2002 -359 -78 836 308 91 2003 -359 -78 836 341 58 2004 -359 -78 836 366 33 2005 -359 -78 836 385 14 2006 -359 -78 836 399 1 2007 -359 -78 836 402 -3 2008 -359 -78 836 419 -19 2009 -359 -78 836 450 -51 2010 -359 -78 836 487 -88 2011 -359 -78 836 516 -117
Year Change in grant Change in benefits Loan outlay Loan repayments PSBR effect 2012 -359 -78 836 537 -137 2013 -359 -78 836 558 -159 2014 -359 -78 836 574 -175 2015 -359 -78 836 586 -187 2016 -359 -78 836 595 -196 2017 -359 -78 836 604 -205 2018 -359 -78 836 610 -211 2019 -359 -78 836 614 -215 2020 -359 -78 836 619 -220 2021 -359 -78 836 627 -228 2022 -359 -78 836 635 -235 2023 -359 -78 836 639 -240 2024 -359 -78 836 639 -240 2025 -359 -78 836 640 -241 2026 -359 -78 836 640 -241 2027 -359 -78 836 640 -241 40W
Table (v) Top-up loans costings Revised student number projections Costs and saving 8 per cent. inflation 80 per cent. take-up United Kingdom (£ million, 1990 prices) Year Change in grant Change in benefits Loan outlay Loan repayments PSBR effect 1990 0 -68 178 0 110 1991 -24 -69 214 2 118 1992 -79 -70 287 10 129 1993 -129 -69 352 23 130 1994 -175 -69 411 45 122 1995 -217 -69 466 75 105 1996 -260 -69 525 107 88 1997 -306 -72 592 139 75 1998 -343 -75 639 169 53 1999 -353 -77 659 196 32 2000 -359 -78 669 222 10 2001 -359 -78 669 252 -20 2002 -359 -78 669 291 -88 2003 -359 -78 669 320 -88 2004 -359 -78 669 339 -107 2005 -359 -78 669 350 -119 2006 -359 -78 669 355 -123 2007 -359 -78 669 351 -119 2008 -359 -78 669 357 -125 2009 -359 -78 669 379 -148 2010 -359 -78 669 406 -175 2011 -359 -78 669 426 -195 2012 -359 -78 669 439 -208 2013 -359 -78 669 454 -223 2014 -359 -78 669 466 -234 2015 -359 -78 669 474 -243 2016 -359 -78 669 481 -249 2017 -359 -78 669 487 -255 2018 -359 -78 669 491 -259 2019 -359 -78 669 493 -261 2020 -359 -78 669 497 -265 2021 -359 -78 669 503 -271 2022 -359 -78 669 509 -277 2023 -359 -78 669 512 -280 2024 -359 -78 669 512 -280 2025 -359 -78 669 512 -280 2026 -359 -78 669 512 -280 2027 -359 -78 669 512 -280
Table (vi) Top-up loans costings Revised student number projections Costs and saving 8 per cent. inflation 100 per cent. take-up United Kingdom (£ million, 1990 prices) Year Change in grant Change in benefits Loan outlay Loan repayments PSBR effect 1990 0 -68 222 0 155 1991 -24 -69 267 3 170 1992 -79 -70 359 12 198 1993 -129 -69 440 29 212 1994 -175 -69 513 57 213 1995 -217 -69 582 94 203 1996 -260 -69 656 134 192 1997 -306 -72 740 173 189 1998 -343 -75 798 211 170 1999 -353 -77 823 245 147 2000 -359 -78 836 277 122 2001 -359 -78 836 315 84 2002 -359 -78 836 363 36 2003 -359 -78 836 400 -1 2004 -359 -78 836 423 -24 2005 -359 -78 836 438 -39 2006 -359 -78 836 443 -44 2007 -359 -78 836 438 -39 2008 -359 -78 836 447 -47 2009 -359 -78 836 474 -75 2010 -359 -78 836 508 -109 2011 -359 -78 836 533 -134 2012 -359 -78 836 549 -150 2013 -359 -78 836 568 -169 2014 -359 -78 836 582 -183 2015 -359 -78 836 593 -194 2016 -359 -78 836 601 -202 2017 -359 -78 836 608 -209 2018 -359 -78 836 613 -214 2019 -359 -78 836 616 -217 2020 -359 -78 836 621 -222 2021 -359 -78 836 629 -229 2022 -359 -78 836 636 -237 2023 -359 -78 836 640 -241 2024 -359 -78 836 640 -241 2025 -359 -78 836 640 -241 2026 -359 -78 836 640 -241 2027 -359 -78 836 640 -241