§ Mr. Robin CookTo ask the Secretary of State for Health if he will give the most recently available estimates of the percentage changes in demand on the hospital and community health services due to demographic change for each year from 1972–73 to 1995–96; and if he will put in the Library details of the methods used to arrive at these estimates.
§ Mr. Kenneth ClarkeThere has been a conventional practice in recent years of giving estimates of increased demand on services from demographic change expressed in expenditure terms. I have never believed that these figures are very useful as they imply, wrongly in my opinion, that increased spending is the only way in which increased demand can be met. Nevertheless I give the information requested in the table.
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Estimates of growth in demographic demand on the hospital and community health services for the years 1972–73 to 1995–96 Year Per cent. 1972–73 0.0 1973–74 -0.1 1974–75 0.0 1975–76 0.1 1976–77 0.2 1977–78 0.3 1978–79 1.0 1979–80 1.3 1980–81 1.1 1981–82 0.4 1982–83 0.4 1983–84 0.5 1984–85 0.6 1985–86 1.3
Year Per cent. 1986–87 1.0 1987–88 1.0 1988–89 1.1 1989–90 0.9 1990–91 0.9 1991–92 0.7 1992–93 0.5 1993–94 0.3 1994–95 0.3 1995–96 0.9 Details of the method used to arrive at the estimates are given in answer to question 2 of the Social Services Select Committee report, Session 1988–89, HC 418.