§ Mr. Pawsey
To ask the Secretary of State for Transport what his Department's estimates are for traffic growth in 1990, 1995 and 2000.
§ Mr. Peter Bottomley
The Department's estimates of traffic growth between 1987 and the dates requested are as follows:
Low growth per cent. High growth per cent. 1987–1990 4 8 1987–1995 9 19 1987–2000 12 28
The estimates are presented as a range to reflect uncertainty about factors underlying traffic growth, such as GDP and fuel prices. They are based on the forecasts given in "National Road Traffic Forecasts, 1984", issued by the Department in March, 1985.
The Department's forecasts are of long-term growth, and cannot sensibly be used to forecast annual growth rates in specific future years.
1987 has been used as a base year because that is the latest year for which observed national traffic data are available. It is normal practice to base forecasts on the latest available traffic data. so that they take account of all past trends.