§ Mr. Austin MitchellTo ask the Minister of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food what is his estimate of the increase in production of agricultural commodities in the EEC for the next five years; what estimates have been made of the effect this will have on the trade of third countries; and what assessment has been made of the implications for United Kingdom exports of manufactures to these countries.
§ Mr. GummerA range of projections of Community agricultural production and trade is contained in the Commission communication COM(87)1 final, 4 March 1987 (pp B4 to B85), a copy of which is in the Library of the House. The projections are based generally on past trends. Actual production in future years will depend on the reactions of the Community's 9 million farmers to the many factors influencing their decisions, including the new stabiliser arrangements, set-aside and Community decisions on agricultural support generally. Developments in world food trade will depend also on changes in agricultural support, production and consumption in other countries. Prospects for United Kingdom exports in manufactured goods will depend primarily on the competitive position of our manufacturing sector.