§ Mr. Archerasked the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland what percentage of health spending in Northern Ireland on an annual basis since 1979 is attributable to (a) demographic changes and (b) technological changes.
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§ Mr. NeedhamIt is estimated that the pressure on resources arising from demographic change in the health and personal social services from 1979–80 to 1984–85 was 0.8 per cent. per annum on average or 4.4 per cent. over the period. It is not possible to make an accurate estimate in respect of technological change in Northern Ireland, but on the basis of work done elsewhere in the United Kingdom it is likely to be between 0.5 per cent. and 1.0 per cent. The real increase in resources from 1979–80 along with efficiency savings in recent years has been more than enough to cope with both demographic and technological pressures.
(a) Expenditure on hospital services (gross)—£ million Cash Percentage increase over previous year Cash adjusted by GDP deflator Percentage increase over previous year 1979–80 200.6 — 305.6 — 1980–81 256.5 27.9 329.0 7.7 1981–82 286.4 11.7 334.0 1.5 1982–83 309.4 8.0 337.2 1.0 1983–84 331.8 7.2 346.0 2.6 1984–85 351.2 5.8 351.2 1.5
(b) Expenditure on community health services (gross)—£ million 1979–80 19.5 — 29.7 — 1980–81 26.3 34.9 33.7 13.5 1981–82 28.9 9.9 33.7 Nil 1982–83 31.9 10.4 34.8 3.3 1983–84 35.1 10.0 36.6 5.2 1984–85 38.2 8.8 38.2 4.4