§ Mr. Chris Smithasked the Secretary of State for the Home Department what estimate he has for the number of places in the prison system which will be without integral sanitation or access to lavatories at night by 1999; and what is his estimate of the projected rise in the prison population by that date.
§ Mr. MellorOn the basis of the building schemes at present in progress or planned the number of places lacking access to sanitation will fall from 22,000 now to 15,600 in 1999, that is, a decrease of 6,400. Projections of the prison population are prepared for only nine years into the future. The population is projected to rise to between 847W nearly 53,000 using a demographic model, and nearly 59,000 using a non-demographic model, by 1994, as described in Home Office statistical bulletin 5/86 (projections of long term trends in the prison population to 1994). But of course all projections must be treated with caution because they are based on historical trends and reflect past levels of crime and the decisions of the courts.