§ Mr. Kirkwoodasked the Secretary of State for Social Services, further to his answer of 16 December 1985, Official Report, column 70, on what basis the original £6 million estimate for charges on overseas visitors using National Health Service facilities was arrived at; and what factors have been responsible for this figure proving to be a substantial overestimate.
§ Mr. HayhoeI understand that the original estimate was based on the assumption that overseas visitors, whose numbers could reasonably be predicted, would use National Health Service hospital services at much the same level as an equivalent cross-section of the population of this country. The subsequent ruling that overseas students 73W on courses of over six months' duration should be regarded as ordinarily resident in the United Kingdom, and not therefore liable to pay as overseas visitors, reduced the potential numbers. Forecast income was reduced on this account by £1 million.
The assumption on use of services by those remaining liable to pay as overseas visitors has proved wrong, possibly for two reasons. First, they may opt to be treated as private patients in the National Health Service, where the charges are similar, or elsewhere. Secondly the imposition of charges is likely in itself to have limited the demand for elective treatment.