§ Mr. Gouldasked the Secretary of State for Trade and Industry what are the reasons for the 11 per cent. reduction in exports since 1980 and for the 37 per cent. increase in imports of finished manufactures in the first nine months of 1983.
§ Mr. ChannonSuch changes have to be viewed in the context of our overall trading position which has shown a large surplus in each of the last four years. The prospects for exports are excellent.
§ Mr. Gouldasked the Secretary of State for Trade and Industry further to the reply of 3 February concerning the volume of exports of finished manufactures, Official Report, c. 380, why the Laspeyres series shows a larger increase that the Paesche series before 1979 and worse afterwards; and which series is to be preferred for estimating the change in the United Kingdom competitive position internationally.
§ Mr. ChannonThe effect of using a Laspeyres volume index is to introduce an upward bias into volume movements since the base year and a downward bias into volume movements prior to the base year. The Paasche volume index produces the opposite effect.
Preference for either index is usually determined by practical considerations such as the purpose for which the index is to be used and the problems of compilation. For comparisons such as the hon. Member has asked me to make the Fisher Ideal Index—the geometrical mean of the Paasche and Laspeyres — seems to be the most appropriate. The relevant figures are as follows: —
Export Volume Index: Finished Manufactures OTS basis—Percentage change on previous year Fisher Ideal Index Per cent. 1975 +5 1976 +3½ 1977 +4½ 1978 -2½ 1979 -2 1980 +3½ 1981 -4½ 1982 +½ 1983 -5½
§ Mr. Gouldasked the Secretary of State for Trade and Industry whether he will publish in the Official Report a table showing the trade deficit in finished manufactures with the European Economic Community and with the rest of the world on a balance of payments basis for each year since 1970 and for each quarter since the beginning of 1981.
§ Mr. ChannonThe available information is as follows.
535W
United Kingdom Balance of Trade in Finished Manufacutures* £ million BOP Basis not seasonally Adjusted European Community Rest of World 1970 +258 +1,845 1971 +141 +2,192 1972 -163 +1,851 1973 -461 +1,667 1974 -278 +2,300 1975 -425 +3,666 1976 -532 +4,467 1977 -551 +4,807 1978 -1,258 +5,003 1979 -2,032 +3,997 1980 -796 +4,854 1981 -1,809 +5,019 1982 -3,151 +4,467 1981 Q1 -93 +1,290 Q2 -410 +1,169 Q3 -557 +957 Q4 -749 +1,603 1982 Q1 -684 +1,248 Q2 -880 +1,118 Q3 -725 +910 Q4 -862 +1,191 1983 Q1 -1,294 +511 Q2 -1,365 +687 Q3 -1,140 +698 * Standard International Trade Classification sections 7 and 8.